2026年市场展望：拥抱新资产

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the uncertainty in the macro - environment is expected to decline. China's economic growth may be driven by rebalancing, with a slight slowdown to 4.7%. The US economy may be driven by fiscal - stimulated consumption and AI investment, and there may be three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the end of next year [3][10]. - In the Chinese market, valuation growth will shift from being liquidity - driven to profit - driven. Hong Kong stocks are cost - effective. Investment should focus on high - growth stocks and core asset themes such as overseas expansion, AI, and new consumption [3][10]. - In the consumer industry, the competitive environment is expected to improve. The investment strategy is to embrace new trends and new consumption. Traditional consumer industries offer opportunities in individual stock fundamental reversals, while new consumer companies focus on valuation rebounds after improved performance certainty [3][10]. - The pharmaceutical industry is optimistic. The innovative drug and CXO sectors are recommended due to factors like China's innovative drug R & D capabilities, policy support, and expected improvement in overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing [4][10]. - The AI industry in the technology sector will continue to grow strongly, driving the growth of multiple industries and experiencing explosive demand growth in downstream applications [4][10]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2026 China Macroeconomic Outlook: The Road to Economic Rebalancing in the First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan - Core Situation in 2025: Thanks to pre - emptive policy efforts and better - than - expected external demand, the annual economic growth target of about 5% can be achieved. However, economic development still faces challenges such as imbalance between supply and demand, the unstable real estate industry, and low inflation [11][16]. - 2026 Outlook: - External and Internal Uncertainties: External trade relations between China and the US may reach a new dynamic balance, and internal risks such as local government debt and real estate have decreased [17]. - Challenges: Economic imbalance persists, the real estate industry remains unstable, and low inflation affects investment and consumption confidence [18][19]. - Policy: Fiscal policy will maintain a 4.0% budget deficit rate, issue 1.6 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and may increase local government special bonds. It focuses on promoting consumption and stabilizing investment. Monetary policy will remain loose, with possible interest rate cuts of 10 - 20 basis points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of 50 - 100 basis points. Real estate policies will be moderately advanced [21][22]. - Economic Growth: Real economic growth is expected to slow to 4.7%. Consumption and investment will contribute 4.3 percentage points, higher than in 2025. The economic growth rate may be low in the first half and high in the second half. Inflation is expected to improve, with the CPI rising to 0.6% and the nominal GDP growth rate rising to 4.5%. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate will remain stable [23][24]. 2026 US Macroeconomic Outlook: The Road to Economic Recovery Led by Policy Stimulus No information provided. 2026 China Market Strategy Outlook: Demand - Driven Growth, Embracing New Core Assets - Investment Strategy: China's market liquidity will remain abundant, but valuation growth will be profit - driven. Hong Kong stocks are cost - effective. Investment should focus on high - growth stocks and core asset themes like overseas expansion, AI, and new consumption [10]. Consumer Industry 2026 Outlook: Find Opportunities in the Quiet and the Ordinary - Industry Environment: In a weak demand recovery environment, the competitive environment is expected to improve through upstream capacity reduction, downstream inventory clearance, and anti - involution [10]. - Investment Strategy: The key is to embrace new trends and new consumption. High - cost - performance domestic substitution, emotional consumption, health - related consumption, new retail formats, and domestic brands going overseas are important investment directions. Traditional consumer industries focus on individual stock fundamental reversals, and new consumer companies focus on valuation rebounds [10]. - Preferred Stocks: Pop Mart (9992.HK), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US), and Topsports (6110.HK) are preferred in 2026 [10]. Pharmaceutical Industry 2026 Outlook: Reach New Heights - Optimistic Outlook: The pharmaceutical sector is optimistic. The innovative drug sector is recommended due to China's leading R & D capabilities, policy support, and more biotech companies entering the profit stage. The CXO sector is also promising as overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing is expected to improve [4][10]. Technology Industry 2026 Outlook: AI Algorithm Iteration Expands the Computing Power Base, and the Prosperous Ecosystem Reshapes the Growth Boundary - AI Growth: The AI industry will continue to grow strongly. Its underlying technology is in a flywheel - iteration stage, driving the growth of multiple industries and experiencing explosive demand growth in downstream applications such as C - end, B - end, and G - end. In the long run, it may bring growth to emerging industries like embodied intelligence [4][10].