无惧内销压力，外销+业务扩张大有可为：家电行业2026年度投资策略

Core Insights - The report highlights that the home appliance sector has significant investment opportunities in 2026, driven by external sales growth and business expansion despite domestic sales pressures [2][12][27] - The home appliance index has increased by 10% year-to-date as of November 24, 2025, indicating a positive market sentiment [7][12] - The report identifies seven key investment themes for the home appliance industry, focusing on government subsidy impacts, external sales opportunities, and technological advancements in product offerings [12][27] Investment Themes - Theme 1: Impact of National Subsidy Policies The report notes that the "old-for-new" policy has been enhanced, leading to significant sales boosts. As of September 30, 2025, over 76 million consumers purchased more than 126 million appliances under this policy, potentially generating sales of approximately 430 billion yuan [12][27][30] - Theme 2: Growth Opportunities in External Sales Emerging markets show low penetration rates for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, suggesting substantial growth potential. If these markets reach China's average ownership levels, demand could increase by 2.3 times for air conditioners [12][27][33] - Theme 3: Mini LED and Large Size Penetration The trend towards Mini LED technology and larger screen sizes is expected to enhance the market share of Chinese black appliance brands. The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup is anticipated to boost global TV sales, benefiting Chinese brands like TCL and Hisense [12][27][33] - Theme 4: Electric Bicycle Market Dynamics The new national standards for electric bicycles are expected to consolidate the market, favoring leading companies. The standards will enhance product quality and profitability, despite short-term inventory pressures [12][27][33] - Theme 5: Rise of Wet Cleaning Products The report indicates that the wet cleaning product segment is gaining traction, with market share for leading brands like Ecovacs increasing significantly. However, growth may face challenges due to high base effects from previous subsidies [12][27][33] - Theme 6: Diversification of Business Operations Home appliance companies are expanding their business lines, with firms like Midea and Anker exploring new growth avenues through innovative products and services [12][27][33] - Theme 7: High Dividend Yield Assets The report emphasizes the strong dividend-paying capabilities of leading home appliance companies, which are expected to enhance shareholder returns as cash flows improve [12][27][33] Company Performance and Valuation - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the sector, highlighting strong cash flow and dividend potential for leaders like Midea, Haier, and Gree [9][10][12] - The home appliance sector's overall market capitalization is reported at approximately 20,256.05 billion yuan, with a circulation market value of 18,086.47 billion yuan [4][12]