银行资负观察第五期：银行中长期负债压力仍存

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the banking sector is experiencing a stabilization in net interest margins and an improvement in fee income, with all state-owned banks reporting double-digit profit growth [3] - The liquidity in the interbank market has shown less volatility compared to the same periods in 2023 and 2024, with a seasonal easing of funds observed in October due to supportive monetary policy tools and limited government bond issuance [12][15] - The report anticipates that the issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) will stabilize around 1.6% in December, with potential downward pressure requiring unexpected liquidity injections from the central bank [20][22] Summary by Sections 1. Interbank Liquidity Performance Review - Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, the interbank funding environment has been notably stable, with the DR007-OMO rate showing less fluctuation than in previous years [12] - The issuance of interbank CDs saw a significant increase in October, with rates slightly rising but returning to historical lows by November [13][15] 2. Monitoring of Key Liquidity Indicators - From October to November, the usage of interbank CD quotas by major national banks decreased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a potential slowdown in net financing growth for state-owned banks [16] - The NSFR (Net Stable Funding Ratio) for large banks was recorded at 107.09%, slightly higher than the same period in 2024, attributed to lower credit issuance compared to last year [23] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with significant upcoming deposit maturities and potential for margin improvement, specifically recommending Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [29] - Additionally, it advises attention to city commercial banks that are likely to benefit from improved fixed asset investment, such as Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [29]