Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-01 10:44Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with daily K - line focusing on support around 6750 and resistance around 6870 [2]. - PE production and capacity utilization are expected to fluctuate slightly. Supply pressure is on the rise as new capacity is planned to be put into operation in December. Downstream开工率 is expected to weaken marginally. International oil prices are in a multi - empty game [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene contracts increased, with the 1 - month contract at 6803 yuan/ton (up 14), the 5 - month contract at 6863 yuan/ton (up 6), and the 9 - month contract at 6892 yuan/ton (up 10). Trading volume was 305073 hands (down 25026), and open interest was 434382 hands (down 23011). The 1 - 5 spread was - 60 (up 8). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 98574 hands (down 5841) [2]. b. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6814.78 yuan/ton (up 10.43), and in East China was 7070.24 yuan/ton (down 6.67). The basis was 11.78 (down 3.57) [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.85 dollars/barrel (up 0.61), and the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 571.5 dollars/ton (up 5.5). The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 721 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Northeast Asia was 741 dollars/ton (up 10) [2]. d. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 84.51% (up 1.79) [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of PE packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 50.7% (down 0.23), 31.83% (down 0.17), and 49.04% (down 0.87) respectively [2]. f. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.49% (up 1.06), the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.54% (up 0.68), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.17%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.16% (down 3.52) [2]. g. Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, China's polyethylene production was 684800 tons (up 2.17% week - on - week), and the capacity utilization rate was 84.51% (up 1.8 percentage points). The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.4%. The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises decreased by 9.80% to 454000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 3.05% to 471100 tons [2]. - From November 22nd to 28th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 1.54% to 7173 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 63.57 yuan/ton to - 346.14 yuan/ton. The cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.26% to 7066 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 95.14 yuan/ton to - 237.43 yuan/ton [2].