瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a reference view of "oscillating upward with a bullish bias" for the rebar market [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the RB2601 contract rose with a decrease in positions. In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points. The weekly rebar production decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 45.18% still at a low level. The apparent demand declined slightly, but the inventory continued to decrease. Overall, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, but the positive macro - expectations support steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,134 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the position volume was 882,576 lots, down 89,702 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 58,202 lots, down 3,981 lots. The spread between the RB1 - 5 contracts was - 33 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 69,875 tons, up 10,356 tons. The spread between the HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 193 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,415 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,520 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 196 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan. The spot price spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 10 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,990 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 152.0607 million tons, up 1.5519 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 449,500 tons, up 16,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2553 million tons, up 31,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1476 million tons, down 13,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.07%, down 1.10 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.96%, down 0.60 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0608 million tons, down 18,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.18%, down 0.41 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.4673 million tons, down 65,900 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8475 million tons, down 152,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 68.75%, down 1.04 percentage points. The monthly output of crude steel in China was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons; the monthly output of steel bars in China was 1.475 million tons, up 41,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 9.28 million tons, down 640,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 92.43, down 0.34; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of the floor area under construction of houses was 6.52939 billion square meters, down 43.59 million square meters; the cumulative value of the newly - started floor area of houses was 490.61 million square meters, down 36.62 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 396.45 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of November 30, 17 cities have introduced 19 property market relaxation policies, with many places promoting full - finished - housing sales, and the real estate industry is accelerating towards the "what you see is what you get" era. At the same time, the housing provident fund policy continues to be optimized, allowing the withdrawal of provident funds for "aging - friendly" and "child - friendly" housing renovations. The National Development and Reform Commission will further broaden market access, strengthen factor support, and accelerate the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund to enhance the sense of gain of private enterprises [2].