Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-01 10:41Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current supply - demand situation in the cotton (yarn) market remains loose. The new cotton delivery is nearly finished, but the new flower sales progress is slow, and the market digestion is below expectations. The port inventory is high, and the downstream demand has no obvious improvement. The new orders of textile enterprises have decreased, and the overall market trading is light. The report suggests paying attention to the improvement of actual replenishment willingness and macro - dynamics in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,765 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,045 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 124,589 lots, down 960 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 911 lots, down 147 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract position is 546,943 lots, up 1,675 lots; cotton yarn main contract position is 6,543 lots, down 1,364 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 2,403 sheets, down 5 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 14 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,936 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,770 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,935 yuan/ton, unchanged; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 20,988 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,932 yuan/ton, unchanged; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 22,245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,834 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 785 thousand tons, down 76 thousand tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import quantity is 90 thousand tons, down 10 thousand tons; cotton yarn import quantity is 140 thousand tons, up 10 thousand tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit is 964 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 2,930.6 thousand tons, up 1,908.9 thousand tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; grey fabric inventory days are 31.97 days, up 0.85 days [2]. - Cloth output is 2.62 billion meters, down 0.18 billion meters; yarn output is 2001 thousand tons, down 73 thousand tons [2]. - Clothing and clothing accessories export amount is 11003480.43 thousand US dollars, down 1449766.57 thousand US dollars; textile yarns, fabrics and products export amount is 11258418.92 thousand US dollars, down 708097.08 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option is 7.4%, up 2.24%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option is 7.4%, up 2.25% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.21%, up 0.38%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.73%, up 0.12% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 28, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 4.1794 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 379.3 thousand tons (9.98% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 3.6164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 373.9 thousand tons (11.53% increase); the commercial cotton in the inland is 182.7 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 thousand tons (0.33% increase) [2]. - As of November 27, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 1.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380.3 thousand tons. The inventory of imported cotton in Zhangjiagang Port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu is about 34.2 thousand tons, and the inventory in other ports is about 29.1 thousand tons [2]. 3.8 View Summary - The supply side: New cotton delivery is nearly finished, but the sales progress is slow, and the market digestion is below expectations. The port inventory remains high, and the RMB shipment volume is limited, with more imports than exports and light market trading [2]. - The demand side: The downstream demand has no obvious improvement. New orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, the yarn shipment rhythm has slowed down, and the overall market trading atmosphere is light [2]. - The current supply - demand situation remains loose. In the future, pay attention to whether the actual replenishment willingness improves and macro - dynamics [2].