瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply is tight due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, zero inventory of rapeseed, and shutdown of oil mills. However, the demand is weak as the temperature drops, reducing the demand for aquaculture, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages for soybean meal. Recently, rapeseed meal has generally maintained a volatile trend, and short - term participation or waiting is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price, but soybean oil supply is abundant and has good substitution advantages, so the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has shown a narrow - range volatile and slightly downward trend, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9770 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2423 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) is 286 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) is 20 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. - The main contract holding volume of rapeseed oil is 171,603 lots, down 4,352 lots; the main contract holding volume of rapeseed meal is 289,881 lots, down 29,820 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 1,510 lots, down 1,148 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 23,062 lots, down 11,421 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,855 sheets, down 110 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 651.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.6 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5405 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,228.75 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7,976.95 yuan/ton, up 16.48 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 4, up 0.03 [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 353 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 3 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1540 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3060 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 0 tons, down 115,300 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 664 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 140,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 220,600 tons, up 62,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 1.02 million tons, down 0.23 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 0.01 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 35.5 million tons, down 0.95 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.66 million tons, down 0.3 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.92 million tons, down 0.23 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 23 million tons, up 0.7 million tons [2]. - The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 0.86 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.276 million tons, down 0.674 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.9%, down 0.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.9%, down 0.34% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.6%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.86%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.32%, up 0.49%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 14.32%, up 0.49% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.96%, down 0.83%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.56%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On November 28 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, but rose more than 9 Canadian dollars this week. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 90 cents, settling at 650.70 Canadian dollars per ton. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 30 cents, settling at 664.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - US soybeans have entered the export season with a temporary abundant supply. In the global export market, the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. However, the domestic crushing consumption of US soybeans is good, and China has purchased nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30, which supports the price of US soybeans. The market is concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US, and US soybeans have recently maintained a wide - range volatile trend at a high level [2]. - The US government is considering postponing a plan to cut incentives for biofuel imports by 1 - 2 years. In November, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined, and the inventory accumulation pressure still exists. Recently, Southeast Asia has suffered from floods, increasing the expectation of seasonal production cuts in palm oil and boosting the low - level rebound of Malaysian palm oil [2]. 3.8 Key Focus - The rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions released by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]