Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-01 10:33Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is at a high level, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, but the unloading time of some vessels is uncertain due to cargo quality, and the specific inventory trend needs to consider the impact of variable factors on unloading and pick - up speed [2] - The load of olefin enterprises in East China has increased, and the weekly average operating rate of the olefin industry is expected to continue to rise. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2160 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2136 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton [2] - The main contract's open interest is 1003722 lots, a decrease of 45066 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 178982 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts is 3800, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1992.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between East China and Northwest is 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2] - CFR China Main Port price is 246 dollars/ton, an increase of 3 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 317 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is - 71 dollars/ton, an increase of 3 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 4.86 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.24 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 93.75 tons, a decrease of 8.03 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 42.6 tons, a decrease of 3.55 tons [2] - The methanol import profit is - 16.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.32 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 373700 tons, an increase of 15000 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.09%, an increase of 0.32% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.98%, an increase of 0.97%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 7.88%, an increase of 2.19% [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 73.06%, an increase of 3.47%; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.97%, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 89.93%, an increase of 0.28%; the methanol - to - olefins profit is - 811 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.44%, a decrease of 0.86%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.55%, an increase of 0.01% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.91%, an increase of 1.68%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.91%, an increase of 1.67% [2] Industry News - As of November 26, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.37 tons, a 4.19% increase; the order backlog is 23.07 tons, a 6.34% decrease [2] - As of November 26, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 136.35 tons, a decrease of 11.58 tons. The inventory in East China and South China has decreased [2] - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 91.01%, a 0.9% increase. The load of olefin enterprises in East China has increased [2]