煤焦日报：多空分歧，煤焦低位反弹-20251201

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending November 28, the total daily coke output of all - sample coking plants and steel mills was 110,080 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,190 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 234,680 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. The steel mill profitability rate dropped 2.6 percentage points to 35.06%, with widespread losses. Coke inventory increased overall this week. With uncertainties in coking coal supply in December, there is resistance to further decline in coke futures, and the main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the trading range [6][34]. - For coking coal, the demand side has no obvious differences, and the supply side is the core factor guiding the market. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season has reduced market expectations of new anti - involution measures in the coal industry. Coking coal output was not affected by the inspection, and imports accelerated, weakening the supply - side logic. Since November, coking coal futures have been in a correction. However, considering the December Political Bureau economic meeting and the year - end production cut expectations, there is resistance to further decline, and the main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the previous trading range [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Guangzhou launched 102 urban renewal projects on November 28, with a total investment of about 807.7 billion yuan, covering various types such as old - community renovation, dilapidated - building reconstruction, and infrastructure upgrading [8]. - On December 1, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main - coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1,580 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | | Monthly Change | | Annual Change | | Year - on - Year Change | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Last Weekend | Change Rate | Last Month End | Change Rate | Last Year End | Change Rate | Same - Period Value | Change Rate | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade FOB) | 1,670 | 1,670 | 0.00% | 1,570 | 6.37% | 1,690 | - 1.18% | 1,790 | - 6.70% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,450 | 1,480 | - 2.03% | 1,550 | - 6.45% | 1,620 | - 10.49% | 1,670 | - 13.17% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,280 | 1,280 | 0.00% | 1,390 | - 7.91% | 1,180 | 8.47% | 1,330 | - 3.76% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,570 | 1,590 | - 1.26% | 1,660 | - 5.42% | 1,490 | 5.37% | 1,630 | - 3.68% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,710 | 1,790 | - 4.47% | 1,740 | - 1.72% | 1,530 | 11.76% | 1,700 | 0.59% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | High Price | Low Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,574.5 | - 1.99 | 1,599.0 | 1,562.0 | 20,980 | 5,174 | 35,266 | 1,953 | | Coking Coal | | 1,067.0 | - 0.79 | 1,074.0 | 1,053.0 | 505,376 | 47,555 | 449,323 | - 3,013 | [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report shows various charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including those of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventories. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][27][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, for coke, considering production, inventory, and supply - side uncertainties, there is resistance to further decline in futures, and the focus is on actual coal - mine production. For coking coal, the supply side is the key factor, and although the market has been in a correction, there is resistance to further decline due to policy and production - cut expectations, with the focus on coal - mine production [34][35].