银河期货苹果日报-20251201

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the apple market are strong due to a decline in apple production this year, a poor high - quality fruit rate, increased storage difficulty, and expected low cold - storage inventory data. However, considering the high price of the January contract and the large risk approaching delivery, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, and also to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and option trading [5][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.30, up 0.08 from the previous trading day. Among futures prices, AP01 was 9526, up 76 from the previous close; AP05 was 9633, up 54; AP10 was 8438, up 27 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - Transaction Logic: This year's apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and storage was more difficult. As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from the previous week and 79.5 million tons from the same period last year. The peak cold - storage inventory this year was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor, so the effective inventory was expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals were strong [5] - Transaction Strategy: For single - side trading, due to the strong apple fundamentals but the high price of the January contract and high delivery - approaching risks, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. For arbitrage and option trading, it is also recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][8] - Market Data: As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from the previous week and 79.5 million tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 9.4%. In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.18%. In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 8.04 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [7] - Spot Price: In the Shandong production area, the late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in cold storage mainly traded small and medium - sized fruits and a small amount of general - quality goods, with few large - sized fruit transactions. The purchase volume of small fruits in cold storage was less than that of last week. In the Qixia area, the mainstream price of bagged Fuji 65 - 70 was 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price was stable, and cold - storage trading was not active. In the Luochuan area, the mainstream price of cold - storage bagged Fuji 70 and above was 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and high - quality goods were 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per catty [7] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are presented, including the price charts of Qixia first - and second - grade bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial bagged 70 apples, AP contract main - force basis, spreads between different AP contracts, the combined apple arrival volume at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][13][16][18][25]