地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：新疆篇

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Xinjiang has a significant strategic position and obvious resource endowment advantages, forming a modern industrial system. In 2024, its economic growth rate remained among the top in China. The region has weak fiscal self - sufficiency but relies on resource reserves and superior subsidies to improve the balance of revenue and expenditure. The overall debt risk is controllable, and the debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises has decreased to some extent, but there are differences in short - term solvency among different regions [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Xinjiang's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Xinjiang is strategically important with rich reserves of minerals, solar, and wind energy. It has a large land area, a long border, and is adjacent to many countries. By the end of 2024, its permanent population was 26.228 million, and the urbanization rate was 60.36%. The production and construction corps is an important part of Xinjiang [6][7]. - In terms of transportation and resources, by the end of 2024, Xinjiang had 230,000 kilometers of roads, 9202 kilometers of railway operating mileage, 26.8 kilometers of urban rail transit, 27 civil transport airports, and 19 open ports. It also had abundant land, water, energy, mineral, and tourism resources [8][9]. - In 2024, Xinjiang's GDP was 2.053408 trillion yuan, ranking 23rd in China, with a growth rate of 6.10%, ranking second. The industrial structure was adjusted to 12.5:39.6:47.9, initially forming a modern industrial system [9]. - National strategies and policies such as the "Three Bases and One Corridor", "Five Strategic Positions", "Ten Industrial Clusters", and counterpart assistance to Xinjiang, as well as local economic promotion policies, have promoted Xinjiang's development. In 2024, 19 counterpart - assistance provinces and cities arranged nearly 20 billion yuan in assistance funds, and central enterprises signed investment agreements worth 940 billion yuan [11]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - Xinjiang has weak fiscal self - sufficiency. In 2024, the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 34.38%. To improve the balance of revenue and expenditure, it increased revenue from the paid use of state - owned resources and assets and actively sought superior subsidies, which accounted for about 61% of the comprehensive financial resources in 2024 [13][15]. - In 2024, Xinjiang's general public budget revenue was 214.46 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 10.5% in the same caliber. The government - funded revenue was 53.523 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [14]. - By the end of 2024, Xinjiang's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 158.49% and 53.04% respectively, ranking 11th and 24th in China. The local comprehensive financial resources' coverage of government debt balance ranked in the upper - middle level in China [19]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefectures and Cities in Xinjiang 3.2.1 Economic Development of Prefectures and Cities - The economic development of prefectures and cities in Xinjiang is uneven, with significant regional differences in industrial structure. The northern region centered on Urumqi has relatively strong economic strength, the gap between the north and the south is gradually narrowing, and the eastern region leads the growth in economic growth rate. Hami City has the highest per - capita GDP in Xinjiang [22]. - In 2024, the GDP of the northern region was 1.268094 trillion yuan (accounting for 61.8% of Xinjiang), with a growth rate of 5.7%. The GDP of the southern region was 612.833 billion yuan (29.8%), with a growth rate of 6.0%. The GDP of the eastern region was 172.481 billion yuan (8.4%), with a growth rate of 9.9% [28][29]. - The industrial structure of prefectures and cities in Xinjiang varies greatly. Changji, Karamay, Bayingolin, Hami, and Turpan have a relatively high proportion of secondary industries, while other prefectures and cities are mainly dominated by the tertiary industry, but the proportion of the tertiary industry varies significantly [30]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of all prefectures and cities in Xinjiang increased, but the growth rate slowed down. Most prefectures and cities' government - funded revenue increased, but the scale was relatively small. Urumqi had the largest general public budget revenue and government - funded revenue. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate varied greatly among regions, and superior subsidies accounted for a high proportion of comprehensive fiscal revenue, with more subsidies going to the southern region [33][34]. - In 2024, the local government debt balance of all prefectures and cities in Xinjiang increased. The debt ratio of Urumqi was the highest in the region. The debt - to - GDP ratio of some prefectures and cities in the southern region was relatively high, but they could receive more superior subsidies [37]. - Xinjiang has implemented the "1 + 7+14" debt - resolution plan, accelerated the withdrawal of financing platforms, and issued local government replacement bonds. It has also carried out dynamic monitoring and supervision of all - caliber local debt, project penetration supervision, and full - life - cycle performance management [39][40]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Xinjiang 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of September 2025, there were 33 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang. The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA, and high - level enterprises are concentrated in Urumqi [44]. 3.3.2 Bond - Issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bonds issued by urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang increased year - on - year, mainly concentrated in Urumqi and Ili. The bond financing showed a net inflow. From January to September 2025, the debt financing was in tight balance, and the bond financing of Urumqi's urban investment enterprises turned into net repayment [45][46]. 3.3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - By the end of 2024, the total debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang decreased by 5.86% year - on - year. The debt structure was mainly bank - related and bond - related debts. The overall debt burden of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in each prefecture and city was moderate, but Ili and Changji faced greater short - term debt - repayment pressure [49]. - In terms of bond redemption, in 2026, the scale of due bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang was 38.621 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in Urumqi [53]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Prefectures and Cities for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - By the end of 2024, in more than half of the prefectures and cities in Xinjiang, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources exceeded 200%. Urumqi had the highest ratio, exceeding 600%, while Kashgar had the lowest ratio, at 118.39% [59].