国债期货：窄幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the central bank's resumption of trading in government bonds in the open market, market expectations for the adjustment of the interest rate yield curve have increased, leading to a limited rebound in government bond futures. With the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and towards the end of the year, policy marginal variables have weakened. The year - end capital market trading has not started, and under the guidance of the central bank's loose liquidity, the probability of significant fluctuations in the year - end capital market is low. The bond market as a whole may fall into a narrow - range fluctuation again, but it is necessary to continuously monitor whether there will be a capital market trading situation at the end of the year [2]. - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth rate has been increasing for three consecutive months. In October, affected by factors such as a higher base in the same period last year and a relatively rapid increase in financial expenses, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic sentiment level is generally stable. In the fourth quarter, the economic downward pressure has increased, but towards the end of the year, the probability of large - scale stimulus policies is low. Overall, the economic fundamentals of the bond market do not support the bond market to break through the shock range, and the bond market may fall into narrow - range fluctuations again, still mainly characterized by shock [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - The report presents figures on the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of long - term, ultra - long - term, short - term, and medium - term government bond futures [5][6] 2. Macro - fundamentals - The report shows figures related to official PMI, GDP, industrial added value, fixed assets investment, and total retail sales of consumer goods [9][12] 3. Policy - making - The report includes figures on general public budget, M2, new RMB loans, inflation data, import and export data, central bank open - market operations, and the M2 - social financing gap [17][21][22] 4. Capital - market - The report provides figures on inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates, interest rate swaps, capital expectations, benchmark interest rates, and capital costs [25][29] Factors to Monitor - The factors to monitor include the stock - bond seesaw, economic data, and the intensity and method of counter - cyclical adjustment [4]