铜基本面延续，海外贵金属多头发难短期波及

Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contracts and Basis: On November 28, the SHFE main contract price was reported at 87,360 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from November 27; the LME price on November 27 was 10,930 US dollars/ton, slightly down 23 US dollars from November 24. In terms of basis, the premium copper rose to 180 yuan/ton on November 28, up 5 yuan from November 27, with the premium strengthening; the flat copper remained stable at 55 yuan/ton; the discount of wet-process copper narrowed to -30 yuan/ton, with the discount improving. The LME (0-3) premium rose to 16.56 US dollars/ton on November 27, significantly strengthening from November 24 [1]. - Positions and Transactions: The LME positions increased by 3,102 lots to 330,192 lots on November 27, and the trading volume expanded. The SHFE inventory increased to 159,425 tons on November 28, up 1.43% from November 27 [1]. *** Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The CSPT reached a consensus on November 27 to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by more than 10% in 2026 to improve the supply-demand fundamentals. Japan's Mitsubishi Materials announced on November 28 that it plans to cut the primary copper smelting volume by 30%-40% by 2035 due to the sharp decline in processing and refining fees. The concentrate supply remains tight, and the LME inventory dropped to 35,244 tons on November 28, down 11.5% from November 24 [2]. - Demand Side: The demand in the power sector is strong. The second-phase project of the Meizhou Pumped Storage Power Station of China Southern Power Grid was put into operation on November 28, supporting the demand for copper cables; the "Sahuang" project in Qinghai started on November 27, with a total investment of 73 billion yuan, which will generate rigid demand for UHV power transmission. However, the construction and consumer electronics sectors are weak. On November 28, information showed that the construction industry's orders slowed down due to high copper prices; the domestic sales production plan of household air conditioners in December decreased by 29.9% year-on-year, and the high base combined with poor terminal price transmission restrained the demand. The copper cable operating rate this week was 66.89%, slightly up 1.22% month-on-month, but the brass rod operating rate was only 50.48%, restricted by high copper prices and terminal wait-and-see sentiment [2]. - Inventory Side: The LME inventory on November 28 was 35,244 tons, showing a continuous decline; the SHFE inventory on November 28 was 159,425 tons, up 1.43% from November 27; the raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises on November 27 decreased by 2.17% month-on-month to 27,000 tons, and the finished product inventory decreased by 1.34% month-on-month, but information indicated that the finished product inventory increased at the end of the month. Overall, the inventory is differentiated, with obvious destocking in the LME and inventory accumulation in the SHFE [3]. *** Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate at a high level in the next one to two weeks. The tightening of the supply side (CSPT's production reduction plan and Japan's smelting cut) provides support, the implementation of power projects on the demand side offsets the weakness in the construction and consumer electronics sectors, and the macro sentiment is favorable due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The copper price is expected to fluctuate between 87,000-89,000 yuan/ton [4].