乙二醇显性库存上升，价格反弹弹性受限

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The ethylene glycol price may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The supply-side operating rate has increased, but the deterioration of oil-based profits may curb further production increases, while the improvement of coal-based profits supports production. The demand side is stable, and the overall inventory is flat but with local increases. In the short term, the price may be supported by trading activity and basis, but inventory pressure needs attention. It is expected that the price will fluctuate and consolidate at the current level [37] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - Price and Basis: The ethylene glycol futures price rose slightly from 3,873 yuan/ton to 3,885 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase. The East China spot price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,890 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase. The basis narrowed from +7 yuan/ton to +5 yuan/ton. Oil-based profits deteriorated, coal-based profits improved significantly by 66.34%, and natural gas-based profits remained stable at 1,430 yuan/ton [2] - Position and Trading Volume: The trading volume of the main contract increased significantly by 44,107 lots to 193,887 lots, a 29.45% increase, indicating increased market trading activity. The position decreased by 3,366 lots to 283,437 lots, a 1.17% decrease, possibly due to profit-taking or position transfer [2] - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 1.5 percentage points to 67.97%, mainly driven by a 2.5 percentage point increase in the oil-based operating rate to 75.95%. The coal-based operating rate remained stable at 55.64%. The ethylene-based and methanol-based operating rates remained unchanged [2] - Demand Side: The downstream polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained stable at 63.43%, indicating no significant change in terminal demand and maintaining rigid support but lacking incremental drivers [2] - Inventory Side: The East China main port inventory remained flat at 732,000 tons, with overall pressure controllable. However, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 285,000 tons, a 3.64% increase, reflecting an increase in local arrivals or slower shipments [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and Spot Prices: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures increased by 0.31%, and the trading volume increased by 29.45%, while the position decreased by 1.17%. The East China spot price increased by 0.26% [5] - Profit: The profits of various ethylene-based production methods decreased, the coal-based profit increased by 66.34%, and the natural gas-based and oilfield associated gas-based profits remained unchanged [5] - Operating Rate: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 2.3%, the oil-based operating rate increased by 3.47%, and the coal-based, ethylene-based, and methanol-based operating rates remained unchanged. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained stable [5] - Inventory: The East China main port inventory remained unchanged, and the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 3.64% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Market Conditions: On November 28, the East China US dollar market had limited fluctuations, the crude oil market supported the cost side, the overseas supply of ethylene glycol decreased, the spot basis continued to weaken, the mainstream market center declined, and the Shaanxi market price remained stable [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main port inventory statistics, and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [7][9][11]