2025年12月原油月度报告：冠通期货研究报告-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent trend of crude oil prices is expected to be volatile. After the Fed's December interest - rate meeting, the market will still worry about crude oil demand. With OPEC+ continuing to increase production, rising exports from the Middle East, and a continuous increase in global crude oil floating storage, the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in late December. However, if the Russia - Ukraine peace talks reach a deadlock and Russian oil product exports are restricted, crude oil prices may be firm [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - From late October to mid - November, crude oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The market digested the news of Russian crude oil being sanctioned by Europe and the US. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders met market expectations, and bilateral relations remained unchanged. OPEC+ planned to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend the increase in the first quarter of next year, alleviating concerns about supply pressure in Q1 2026. EIA inventory continued to accumulate, and US ISM manufacturing data was poor. OPEC adjusted the third - quarter 2025 global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices. However, factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, rising gasoline and diesel crack spreads in Europe and the US, and the escalation of the Venezuelan situation supported crude oil prices. In late November, the Trump administration tried to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, causing crude oil prices to fall. Near the end of the month, as the possibility of a near - term Russia - Ukraine peace agreement was low, crude oil prices rebounded slightly [7]. 3.2 Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - In November, the net position of WTI was not announced. The net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds increased after hitting a low in November. As of the week ending November 18, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds increased by 13,497 contracts to 178,364 contracts, an increase of 8.19% and 3.96% compared to the end of October. The enthusiasm for speculative long positions in crude oil began to recover but remained at a low level in recent years. - As of November 26, the Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt volume decreased by 738,000 barrels to 3.464 million barrels compared to the end of October, still at a low level [11]. 3.3 Crude Oil Production - On the supply side, OPEC's latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in September was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day. Its production in October 2025 increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ crude oil production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. - The latest OPEC+ meeting agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026. Eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. - In the week ending November 21, US crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day, near the historical high [15]. 3.4 Oil Drilling Rigs - In November, the number of US oil drilling rigs continued to decline. As of the week ending November 26, the number of US oil drilling rigs was 407, a decrease of 12 compared to the previous week and 7 compared to the week ending October 31. The significant decrease of 12 US oil drilling platforms in a week increased the expectation that low oil prices would limit US crude oil production growth [19]. 3.5 US Crude Oil Imports and Exports - According to US Energy Administration data, as of the week ending November 21, US crude oil imports increased by 486,000 barrels per day to 6.436 million barrels per day, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years; US crude oil exports decreased by 560,000 barrels per day to 3.598 million barrels per day, also at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [23]. 3.6 China's Crude Oil Processing Volume and Imports - China's domestic crude oil processing volume rebounded month - on - month. In October, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 1.18% month - on - month to 63.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.40%, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. From January to October, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume increased by 4.00% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate continued to rise slightly. - China's domestic crude oil imports also rebounded month - on - month, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. In October, China's crude oil imports increased by 2.35% month - on - month to 48.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. From January to October, China's cumulative crude oil imports increased by 3.10% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased slightly [27]. 3.7 US Dollar Index - The director of the US White House National Economic Council, Hassett, said that if nominated as the Fed Chairman, he "would be very happy to serve." - The expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut has increased [30]. 3.8 Gasoline Crack Spread - The US is trying to promote Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US have fallen from their highs. In November, the gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $2.0 per barrel and $0.5 per barrel respectively. The diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $3.0 per barrel and $5.0 per barrel respectively [34]. 3.9 US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA monthly report predicts that global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. The OPEC monthly report adjusted the third - quarter 2025 global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. Additionally, the OPEC monthly report maintained the forecast of the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day. The IEA monthly report raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day; it also raised the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day. - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease compared to the same period last year, shifting from being higher than the same period last year to lower. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, a 0.06% increase compared to the same period last year; the weekly diesel demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, a 0.17% decrease compared to the same period last year. Although diesel demand declined significantly month - on - month, the rebound in gasoline and other oil products drove the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase month - on - month [38]. 3.10 Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of November 26, US EIA data showed that as of the week ending November 21, US crude oil inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 55,000 barrels, and was 4.50% lower than the five - year average. It increased by 10.963 million barrels in the past four weeks. The Cushing area inventory was reported at 21.753 million barrels, a decrease of 68,000 barrels compared to the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and decreased by 812,000 barrels in the past four weeks. - US gasoline inventory increased by 2.513 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 745,000 barrels. It decreased by 834,000 barrels in the past four weeks. Gasoline inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years and continued to accumulate seasonally. - As of the week ending November 21, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 411.4 million barrels, the highest since the week ending September 30, 2022. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has increased for 18 consecutive weeks. - On November 20, 2025, the US Department of Energy announced a reorganization, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources and replacing the previous department focused on renewable energy and energy efficiency [42][46]. 3.11 Geopolitical Risks - US Secretary of State Rubio said that the talks with Ukraine were "productive" after the new round of US - Ukraine negotiations, but there was still much work to be done. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu formally submitted a pardon request to President Herzog [48].