关注明年装置的检修计划：能源化工周报：PX&PTA-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices were low at the beginning of the week and high at the end, mainly due to the continued enthusiasm for gasoline blending in the market. The hype about gasoline blending continued to cool down, but from the supply - demand perspective, the South Korean GS plant has a later shutdown plan, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has a CDU maintenance plan in January, which may lead to a decline in PX load and an expected improvement in the PX supply side. The sentiment support for PX remained strong during the week [8]. - PTA prices followed the cost increase, mainly due to a slight reduction in inventory and the strength of PX. There were few changes in PTA plants this week. Honggang Petrochemical restarted, and Zhongtai Petrochemical increased its load. The average processing fee for the week was still below 200 yuan/ton. The downstream polyester start - up rate remained oscillating around 89%. The polyester factories' equity inventory was not high, and the rigid demand for PTA was good [8]. 2.2 Future Market Forecast - Crude oil: The biggest problem in the peaceful settlement of the Russia - Ukraine issue lies in territorial disputes, and the probability of short - term negotiation success is low. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate narrowly. PX: The domestic PX supply has entered a relatively stable stage. Recently, focus on the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. PTA: The delay in plant maintenance has accelerated short - term inventory reduction, but there are no other plant start - stop plans later, and the processing fee will remain low this year. Polyester: The market is transitioning to the off - season, short - term demand is generally stable, and there are positive news in the export market, but it needs time to verify. Weaving: The downstream new orders are weakening, and the坯布 inventory is gradually transitioning from destocking to slight inventory accumulation, and it is difficult to improve this year [11]. - Overall, PX will fluctuate at a high level, with an operating range of 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton; PTA will also fluctuate at a high level, with an operating range of 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - PX Futures: The closing price of the PX main contract on November 28 was 6830 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 1.19%. The settlement price on November 28 was 6780 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 0.06% [16]. - PX Spot: From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was - 227 yuan/ton; the average domestic PX spot price was 6535.20 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a change of - 0.02% [19]. 3.1.2 PTA - PTA Futures: The closing price of the PTA main contract on November 28 was 4700 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 0.73%. The settlement price on November 28 was 4672 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of - 0.13% [22][23]. - PTA Spot: From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was - 40.40 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 584 US dollars/ton, up 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period, with a change of 0.01%. The average price of PTA spot in the East China market was 4627.8 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a change of 0.05% [26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - Domestic PX Devices: Many domestic PX plants have different operating loads. For example, Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. operates at 90% load, and Yangzi Petrochemical operates at full load. The overall domestic PX plant load decreased slightly from 90.50% from November 17 - 21 to 88.92% from November 24 - 28, mainly due to the early maintenance of Zhonghua Quanzhou [30][34]. - Asian Other PX Devices: Some PX plants in Asia have experienced changes such as shutdowns, restarts, and load adjustments. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia restarted after a shutdown in early January, and GS Caltex in South Korea plans to shut down around mid - December [32]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Many PTA plants are in a state of shutdown or maintenance. For example, Yisheng Dalian's 225 - ton PTA plant has been shut down since August 8, and the restart time is undetermined. Recently, there have been many PTA plant maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped by 2.37% [37][38]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude Oil: Although the net increase of international crude oil futures this week was about 1%, the market's expectation of an increase in global supply still suppressed oil prices. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 58.55 US dollars/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars/barrel from November 21. The Brent crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.18 US dollars/barrel from November 21 [43][45]. - Naphtha: The demand for naphtha in Europe is weak, and the gasoline blending demand is not enough to support the price. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 561.78 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 67.81 US dollars/ton. The ethylene cracking weekly average price rebounded this week [50]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX Processing Margin: The short - process efficiency has expanded due to the hype of gasoline blending. The weekly average PXN was 265.49 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 2.24%. The PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 107 US dollars/ton [55]. - PTA Processing Fee: The processing fee has remained low this year and is expected to improve next year. From November 24 - 28, the average spot processing fee of PTA this week was 209.11 yuan/ton, compared with 177.03 yuan/ton last week [59]. - Inventory: As of November 28, the social inventory of PTA was 3.871 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous week, with a month - on - month growth rate change of - 0.42%. The PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.03 days, and the polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.35 days [63][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: The overall demand is not strong, which is negative for polyester product prices. The average market prices of polyester filament semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 0.76%, 0.19%, and 0.22% respectively compared with the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a decline of 0.02%. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5680 - 5760 yuan/ton, and the average price this period was 5728.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous period [69][72]. - Weaving: The domestic weaving market demand has significantly weakened, and the placement of foreign trade orders is relatively smooth. As of November 27, the opening rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang and Changxing remained stable, the circular knitting machine opening rate in Xiaoshao decreased by 1.19%, and the warp - knitting opening rates in Haining and Changshu remained stable [84][86].