每日核心期货品种分析-20251201

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On December 1st, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with some showing significant gains and others posting losses. The performance of different commodities varied based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical factors, and macro - economic expectations [5]. - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors such as production changes, demand trends, geopolitical events, and macro - economic policies. For example, copper prices are affected by Fed's interest - rate cut probability and production reduction plans; crude oil prices are impacted by OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical tensions, and inventory changes [8][11]. Summary by Commodity Commodity Performance - As of December 1st, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Shipping to Europe via container lines rose over 5%, coking coal rose over 3%, and eggs rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed oil fell over 2%, and palm oil and fuel oil fell over 1%. Among stock index futures, IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, and among bond futures, TS, TF, and T rose while TL fell. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into contracts like Shanghai copper 2601, Shanghai gold 2602, and Shanghai silver 2602, and flowed out of contracts like CSI 1000 2512, CSI 500 2512, and SSE 50 2512 [5][6]. Market Analysis - Copper: In December, the probability of a Fed interest - rate cut is high, making copper prices tend to be strong. However, in the off - season, demand weakens, which restricts the upward space of copper prices. Chinese copper smelters plan to cut production by over 10% in 2026, which may stimulate copper prices to rise [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: It showed a strong trend. In November 2025, domestic production continued to rise. Although there are concerns about future demand, such as the cancellation of tax - exemption policies for new - energy vehicles next year and the uncertain resumption time of CATL, current orders are high, supporting its strong operation [10]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The end of the demand peak season, increased inventories in the US, and geopolitical factors have led to an oversupply situation. However, due to factors like the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's expected interest - rate cut, oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [11][13]. - Asphalt: Supply is expected to increase slightly, but demand will weaken further. With the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - PP: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply has new production capacity and some maintenance devices. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, so the upward space is limited [15][16]. - Plastic: The start - up rate has increased slightly, but the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply has new production capacity. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [17]. - PVC: The start - up rate is at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is large. With the approach of the traditional demand off - season and some negative factors such as price cuts by Formosa Plastics, the upward space is limited [18]. - Coking Coal: It showed a strong trend in the short - term, but there is an expectation of peak demand in the future. The supply may decrease next month, and the downstream demand is weakening [19][20]. - Urea: It showed a weak trend. With the approach of the heating peak season, the daily production is expected to decline, and the demand for winter storage provides support. The overall supply - demand situation has a certain anti - decline ability [21].