瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories accumulated significantly. Affected by the decline in caustic soda prices, the profits of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises decreased month - on - month and maintained a contraction trend. This week, some facilities in East and North China will restart, and the newly followed - up maintenance capacity is scarce. The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase month - on - month. In December, caustic soda is generally expected to be in a situation of relatively high supply. Alumina enterprises have no news of production cuts, and their procurement demand is low under the background of low profits; non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The inventory is expected to remain at a high level, the supply will continue to be loose, the spot price will be under pressure, and it is more likely that the spot price will decline to narrow the basis in the future. SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the high basis and low corresponding profit level may limit the decline space, with the daily range expected to be around 2180 - 2250 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 148,447 lots, a decrease of 8006 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was 5467 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 275,167 lots, an increase of 69,841 lots; the closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2390 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 18,551 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; the converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2281 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton; the basis of caustic soda was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 222.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2770 yuan/ton, unchanged. From November 21st to 27th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. From November 22nd to 28th, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.60% month - on - month to 86.06%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 91.29%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.02% month - on - month to 65.53%. As of November 27th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises nationwide was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. From November 21st to 27th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 357 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week [2].