螺纹热卷日报-20251201

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report, December 1, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [2] Group 2: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar at 3,260 yuan (+40), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,230 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil at 3,310 yuan (+20), Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil at 3,250 yuan (+30) [4] Group 3: Market Analysis - Market trend: The black metal sector maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with coal and coke leading the rebound [5] - Steel production and inventory: Five major steel products continued to increase production, with rebar production decreasing and hot-rolled coil increasing; total steel inventory destocking slowed down, social inventory destocking accelerated, and apparent steel demand declined slightly [5] - Raw material outlook: Iron ore production is expected to continue to decline this week, squeezing raw material prices; coal and coke prices have recently accelerated their decline due to increased supply and inventory, but the downside for coking coal is limited [5] - Steel price forecast: Short-term steel prices will remain volatile and slightly stronger, following the fundamentals and continuing to trade within a range [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [6] - Arbitrage: Suggest closing long positions in the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread for profit [7] - Options: Suggest waiting and seeing [8] Group 5: Important Information - Environmental inspection: The third round and fifth batch of central environmental protection inspection teams reported typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei [9] - Tangshan steel billet: On the 1st, the direct sales of Tangshan steel billets were average, and the ex-factory price of steel billets is expected to increase by about 10 yuan in the afternoon [10]