Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Black Metal Daily - Ferroalloy Daily, December 1, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5466, daily change 76, weekly change 10, trading volume 354,243, daily change 121,697, open interest 254,583, daily change -3,190 [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5738, daily change 122, weekly change 108, trading volume 256,244, daily change 143,035, open interest 253,444, daily change -61,711 [3] Spot - Silicon Iron: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia priced at 5250, daily change 50, weekly change 20; in Ningxia 5200, daily change 0, weekly change -30; in Qinghai 5250, daily change 0, weekly change -20; in Jiangsu 5500, daily change 0, weekly change -20; in Tianjin 5400, daily change 0, weekly change 0 [3] - Manganese Silicon: Si - Mn 6517 in Inner Mongolia priced at 5530, daily change 30, weekly change 10; in Ningxia 5510, daily change 30, weekly change 30; in Guangxi 5550, daily change 20, weekly change 20; in Jiangsu 5700, daily change 50, weekly change 30; in Tianjin 5680, daily change 50, weekly change 30 [3] Basis/Spread - Silicon Iron: Inner Mongolia - Main contract basis -216, daily change -26, weekly change 10; Ningxia - Main contract -266, daily change -76, weekly change -40; Qinghai - Main contract -216, daily change -76, weekly change -30; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread 250, daily change -50, weekly change -40; SF - SM spread -272, daily change -46, weekly change -98 [3] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - Main contract basis -208, daily change -92, weekly change -98; Ningxia - Main contract -228, daily change -92, weekly change -78; Guangxi - Main contract -188, daily change -102, weekly change -88; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread 20, daily change -10, weekly change 10 [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump ore priced at 40, daily change 0, weekly change 0.2; South African semi - carbonate 34.2, daily change 0, weekly change -0.1; Gabon lump ore 42, daily change 0, weekly change 1.3 [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Materials: In Shaanxi priced at 820, daily change 0, weekly change 0; in Ningxia 920, daily change 0, weekly change 0; in Inner Mongolia 810, daily change 0, weekly change 0 [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Trading Strategy - On December 1, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon iron main contract closed at 5466, up 1.41%, with open interest decreasing by 3190 lots; the manganese silicon main contract closed at 5738, up 2.17%, with open interest decreasing by 61,711 lots [5] - Silicon Iron: Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend on the 1st. Supply continued to decline slightly as alloy plants continued maintenance. Demand may see a short - term increase in steel production due to improved steel profits, but overall steel apparent demand will decline seasonally in December, and the resumption of production is expected to be short - lived. Costs were generally stable. Overall, short - term costs provide support, the fundamentals have slightly improved, and it rebounds in the short term following the overall commodity sentiment, but the rebound height should not be over - expected [5] - Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore spot prices were generally stable on the 1st, and manganese silicon spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, rising 20 - 50 yuan/ton in various regions. Supply also continued to decline. Demand may see a short - term increase in steel production due to improved steel profits, but steel apparent demand will seasonally weaken in the future, and the resumption of production is expected to be short - lived. Manganese ore port inventory increased slightly but remained at a low level compared to the same period, and the spot price was firm, which pushed up the cost. It rebounds in the short term due to cost factors, but future demand pressure remains, suppressing the rebound height [5] Specific Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term rebound driven by costs, but future demand pressure still exists, suppressing the rebound height [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Group 4: Important Information - Xinyu Iron and Steel set the silicon iron purchase price at 5700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 600 tons [7] - The third round and fifth batch of the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team reported typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei. Tianjin had serious problems in volatile organic compound control and vehicle inspections, with sub - standard air quality and many enterprises found to be illegally discharging pollutants. Tangshan, Hebei, was named for illegally launching steel projects and adding new production capacity, and there were obvious shortcomings in air pollution prevention and control. Many enterprises were found to be illegally discharging pollutants and failing to meet ultra - low emission transformation standards. The inspection team will continue the investigation and carry out subsequent work as required [7] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia: Production cost 5444 yuan/ton, profit - 324 yuan/ton [16] - Ningxia: Production cost 5625 yuan/ton, profit - 525 yuan/ton [16] - Shaanxi: Production cost 5729 yuan/ton, profit - 649 yuan/ton [16] - Qinghai: Production cost 5783 yuan/ton, profit - 633 yuan/ton [16] - Gansu: Production cost 5831 yuan/ton, profit - 681 yuan/ton [16] Manganese Silicon - Inner Mongolia: Production cost 5800 yuan/ton, profit - 300 yuan/ton [17] - Ningxia: Production cost 5892 yuan/ton, profit - 412 yuan/ton [17] - Guangxi: Production cost 6288 yuan/ton, profit - 758 yuan/ton [17] - Guizhou: Production cost 6183 yuan/ton, profit - 683 yuan/ton [17]
铁合金日报-20251201
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-12-01 11:30