Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-01 11:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Gas (00384) [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 34.481 billion for the first half of FY2025/26, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.334 billion, down 24.2%, which was below expectations due to a reduction in new user connections and a slowdown in industrial gas demand [6]. - Free cash flow reached a record high of HKD 2.6 billion, an increase of 17.2% year-on-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [6]. - The retail gas sales volume increased by 1.7% year-on-year to 17.41 billion cubic meters, although town gas sales volume decreased by 1.5% due to declining industrial gas demand [6]. - The company aims to maintain a gross margin target of HKD 0.55 per cubic meter for the full fiscal year, with potential for a slight increase compared to the previous fiscal year [6]. - The connection business continues to face pressure, with new residential user connections down 25.2% year-on-year, indicating a declining contribution to overall profits [6]. - Value-added and integrated energy businesses showed steady growth, contributing positively to the company's performance, with significant increases in commercial user-side energy storage and electricity sales [6]. - The company is actively optimizing its debt structure, resulting in a decrease in financing costs to 3.39% for the first half of FY2025/26, down 0.45 percentage points from the previous fiscal year [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the upcoming fiscal years are as follows: - FY2023/24: HKD 81.41 billion - FY2024/25: HKD 79.26 billion - FY2025/26: HKD 76.37 billion - FY2026/27: HKD 72.40 billion - FY2027/28: HKD 72.60 billion [5][7]. - Net profit forecasts are: - FY2023/24: HKD 3.185 billion - FY2024/25: HKD 3.252 billion - FY2025/26: HKD 3.264 billion - FY2026/27: HKD 3.770 billion - FY2027/28: HKD 4.192 billion [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - FY2023/24: HKD 0.59 - FY2024/25: HKD 0.60 - FY2025/26: HKD 0.60 - FY2026/27: HKD 0.69 - FY2027/28: HKD 0.77 [5][7].