债券研究周报：固收买方开始看多债市-20251201

Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly released on December 1, 2025, focusing on the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers from November 25 to December 1 [4]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From November 25 - December 1, the bond market seller sentiment declined slightly, the divergence decreased, the buyer sentiment turned optimistic, and the bearish views of both buyers and sellers disappeared this week. The year - end front - running market in the bond market is approaching, and the allocation value has emerged as the interest rate rises to the top of the central bank's desirable range. However, sellers are more cautious about the front - running market due to the sluggish institutional allocation willingness [4]. Section Summaries Seller Perspective - The bond market sentiment declined slightly. Based on the statistics of 20 seller institutions, the sentiment declined, many views turned neutral, and there were no bearish views this week. Currently, sellers are mostly neutral - bullish, with 10% being bullish, 20% being moderately bullish, and 70% being neutral [5]. - 10% of institutions are bullish, believing that strong expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, weak domestic economic data, falling housing prices, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle are favorable factors [5]. - 20% of institutions are moderately bullish, citing the year - end "calendar effect", institutional allocation demand, front - running and increasing positions, and weak economic fundamentals as positive factors [5]. - 70% of institutions are neutral, considering that factors such as policy uncertainty, risk preference, stock - bond seesaw, monetary policy attitude, and asset shortage are intertwined, and the market may enter a low - volatility shock state [5]. Buyer Perspective - The sentiment index turned from negative to positive. Based on the views of 25 fixed - income buyer institutions, the number of moderately bullish views increased, and there were no bearish views. Overall, buyers are neutral - bullish, with 36% being moderately bullish and 64% being neutral [6]. - 36% of institutions are moderately bullish, believing that the interest rate has reached the upper limit of the desirable range, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the risk preference may decline [6]. - 64% of institutions are neutral, citing policy uncertainty, institutional behavior disturbances, insufficient odds, high operation difficulty, lack of a one - sided main line, and the market entering a wait - and - see period [6].