天富期货多晶硅、碳酸锂、工业硅日报-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The main trading logic for polysilicon is the shortage of deliverable resources and significant capital - side disturbances. The spot price is stable, with inventory accumulation and weak overall demand in the entire industry chain [1]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term downstream lithium - battery demand remains high, with a decline in weekly production and a continuous de - stocking trend. The long - term demand is expected to be good, and the price is likely to rise. The near - month contracts are suppressed by seasonal demand weakness [3]. - Industrial silicon has a situation of weak supply and demand, high inventory, and balanced monthly supply and demand. The market is mainly affected by sentiment, and the price fluctuation may be limited [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures opened higher and rose rapidly in the morning, hitting a new high for the year. The main 2601 contract closed at 57705 yuan/ton, up 2.27% from the previous trading day [1]. - Core Logic: After the concentrated cancellation of polysilicon warehouse receipts at the end of November, the quantity of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The current trading logic focuses on the shortage of deliverable resources and large capital - side disturbances. The spot price is stable, with inventory accumulation and weak demand in the industry chain [1]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of polysilicon futures increased, and it is still controlled by bulls. There was an intervention opportunity at 9:05 according to the "First K Breakthrough Method" with volume increase. The 5 - minute cycle is a red line, green belt, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line. The multi - empty dividing water level is 53315 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Suggestion: Since it is at the upper edge of the oscillation range and the 2601 contract hit a new high for the year, it is recommended to wait and see. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures opened higher and then fell back. The 2605 contract closed at 96940 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous trading day [3]. - Core Logic: In the short term, downstream lithium - battery demand remains high, production decreased this week, and inventory continued to decline. The long - term demand is expected to be good, and the price is likely to rise. The near - month contracts are suppressed by seasonal demand weakness, resulting in a structure of lower near - term prices and higher far - term prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of lithium carbonate futures changed little. The 5 - minute cycle is a red line, blue belt, and red ladder, still in the oscillation range. The 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line. The multi - empty dividing water level is 92040 yuan/ton [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Under the background of "strong reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [7]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated in a narrow range. The main 2601 contract closed at 9145 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous trading day [11]. - Core Logic: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the inventory is high. The monthly supply and demand are generally balanced, and the market is mainly affected by sentiment. The price fluctuation may be limited. Attention should be paid to the possible expansion of production cuts during the dry season in Yunnan in December and the impact of downstream enterprise policies on demand [11]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly. The 5 - minute cycle has changed to a red line, blue belt, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line. The multi - empty dividing water level is 8940 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy Suggestion: Since it is mainly affected by policies and news, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to periodic sentiment disturbances. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [11].