Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report Title: [HuaBao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. The market believes that weak employment data will prompt the Fed to cut interest rates further, and the US government is releasing delayed economic data. In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year-on-year but decreased month-on-month. Downstream开工率 declined, and the aluminum water ratio decreased. In December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly month-on-month. The PMI of the aluminum processing industry in November showed significant differentiation. As of December 1, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in the mainstream consumption areas in China remained flat compared with last Thursday and decreased by 17,000 tons compared with last Monday [13]. - View: There is obvious support from the macro - aspect, and the overseas supply is expected to tighten fundamentally. However, with the arrival of the short - term off - season, the downstream demand weakens and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases. It is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and the high - level pressure [13]. Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices remained high. The processing fees of zinc concentrates decreased compared with early November. The galvanizing开工率 decreased slightly last week. The zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the export window of zinc ingots was still open recently [14]. - View: In the short term, the price maintains a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events and the LME inventory trend [14]. Tin - Logic: Last week, the price of Shanghai tin rose significantly. Due to the slow ore output in Myanmar and the tense situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the price of Shanghai tin exceeded 300,000. In October, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates decreased year - on - year. Yunnan and Jiangxi are still in a state of raw material shortage with low开工率. The downstream semiconductor consumption is acceptable, but the traditional automotive and home appliance sectors have cooled down [15]. - View: Due to the sudden situation at the mine end, the price of tin is strongly sorted [15]. Group 4: Weekly Market Review Futures and Spot Prices | Variety | Futures Contract | Closing Price on Dec 1, 2025 | Closing Price on Nov 24, 2025 | Weekly Change | Weekly Increase/Decrease | Spot Price on Dec 1, 2025 | Spot Price on Nov 24, 2025 | Weekly Change | Weekly Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | CU2601 | 89,280 | 86,080 | 3,200 | 3.72% | 89,150 | 86,215 | 2,935 | 3.40% | | Aluminum | AL2601 | 21,865 | 21,380 | 485 | 2.27% | 21,730 | 21,330 | 400 | 1.88% | | Zinc | ZN2601 | 22,590 | 22,390 | 200 | 0.89% | 22,206 | 22,212 | - 6 | - 0.03% | | Tin | SN2601 | 306,580 | 292,860 | 13,720 | 4.68% | 311,500 | 293,750 | 17,750 | 6.04% | | Nickel | NI2601 | 117,850 | 115,530 | 2,320 | 2.01% | 120,340 | 118,290 | 2,050 | 1.73% | [9] Group 5: Variety Data - Aluminum Bauxite - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week on November 28, up 5 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week, up 20 year - on - year; the average price index of imported bauxite was 72.2 US dollars/ton on November 28, down 0.26 week - on - week and 20.24 year - on - year [20]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports on November 28 was 5.1392 million tons, up 3.0815 million tons week - on - week and 1.4105 million tons year - on - year; the departure volume at ports was 4.5221 million tons, down 262,300 tons week - on - week and 134,000 tons year - on - year [23]. Alumina - Price and Cost - Profit: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week on November 28, down 2,855 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,899.3 yuan/ton, down 5.5 week - on - week and 342.6 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was - 100.23 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 2,881.99 year - on - year [26]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Total Cost: The total cost on November 28 was 16,078.1 yuan/ton, down 2.64 week - on - week and 5,109.33 year - on - year [30]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 90 yuan/ton on November 28, up 30 week - on - week and down 30 year - on - year [30]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables on November 27 was 63, up 0.6 week - on - week and down 8.8 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 70.4, unchanged week - on - week and down 4.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum strips was 66.4, unchanged week - on - week and down 5.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.5, up 0.4 week - on - week and up 1.7 year - on - year; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2, up 0.4 week - on - week and up 5.2 year - on - year; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5, up 0.9 week - on - week and up 5.6 year - on - year [32][33]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on November 27 was 39,500 tons, down 1,600 week - on - week and down 1,400 year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 60,500 tons, down 1,600 week - on - week and up 10,400 year - on - year; the social inventory on December 1 was 596,000 tons, down 17,000 week - on - week and up 43,000 year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas on November 24 was 139,400 tons, up 25,300 week - on - week and up 17,300 year - on - year; the SHFE inventory on November 28 was 115,277 tons, down 8,439 week - on - week and down 109,099 year - on - year; the LME inventory on November 27 was 539,050 tons, down 8,950 week - on - week and down 159,425 year - on - year [37][38]. - Spot and Basis: The basis for the current month on November 28 was - 150 yuan/ton, down 230 week - on - week and down 100 year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 160 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week and down 130 year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 210 yuan/ton, down 205 week - on - week and down 115 year - on - year [44]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract on November 28 was - 10 yuan/ton, up 30 week - on - week and down 50 year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan/ton, up 25 week - on - week and down 20 year - on - year [45]. Group 6: Variety Data - Zinc Zinc Concentrate - Price and Processing Fees: The price of domestic zinc concentrate on November 28 was 18,490 yuan/metal ton, up 194 week - on - week and down 3,518 year - on - year; the domestic processing fee was 2,350 yuan/metal ton, down 250 week - on - week and up 850 year - on - year; the import processing fee was 61.25 US dollars/dry ton, down 11.8 week - on - week [54]. - Production Profit, Import Profit - Loss and Inventory: The enterprise production profit on November 28 was 5,490 yuan/metal ton, up 194 week - on - week and down 3,538 year - on - year; the import profit - loss was - 2,710.15 yuan/ton, down 859.58 week - on - week and down 2,543.97 year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang on November 28 was 150,000 physical tons, unchanged week - on - week and up 9 year - on - year [58]. Refined Zinc - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions on December 1 was 144,300 tons, down 6,700 week - on - week and up 44,400 year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory on November 27 was 3,600 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 5,900 year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on November 28 was 95,916 tons, down 4,431 week - on - week and up 42,933 year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory on November 27 was 51,750 tons, up 4,425 week - on - week and down 216,875 year - on - year [62]. Galvanizing - Production, Operating Rate and Inventory: The production on November 27 was 336,690 tons, up 5,300 week - on - week and down 61,375 year - on - year; the operating rate was 56.54, down 0.63 week - on - week and down 9.97 year - on - year; the raw - material inventory was 14,520 tons, down 330 week - on - week and up 2,480 year - on - year; the finished - product inventory was 366,200 tons, down 600 week - on - week and up 12,820 year - on - year [66]. Zinc Basis and Monthly Spread - Basis: The basis for the current month on November 28 was - 15 yuan/ton, down 60 week - on - week and down 990 year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 55 yuan/ton, down 100 week - on - week and down 1,450 year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 105 yuan/ton, down 140 week - on - week and down 1,865 year - on - year [70]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract on November 28 was - 40 yuan/ton, down 40 week - on - week and down 460 year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan/ton, down 80 week - on - week and down 875 year - on - year [71]. Group 7: Variety Data - Tin Refined Tin - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on November 28 was 0.336 million tons, up 0.002 week - on - week and up 0.0175 year - on - year; the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 69.34%, up 0.41 week - on - week and up 3.61 year - on - year [80]. Tin Ingot - Inventory: The total SHFE tin - ingot inventory on November 28 was 6,359 tons, up 130 week - on - week and down 880 year - on - year; the social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China on November 28 was 7,825 tons, up 171 week - on - week and down 352 year - on - year [84]. Tin Concentrate - Processing Fees: The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan on November 28 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 3,000 year - on - year; the processing fees for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan and Jiangxi were 8,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 3,000 year - on - year [85]. - Import Profit - Loss: The import profit - loss level of tin ore on November 28 was 9,605.95 yuan/ton, down 4,095.68 week - on - week and down 2,350.24 year - on - year [88]. - Spot Price: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan on November 28 was 288,000 yuan/ton, up 8,700 week - on - week and up 63,400 year - on - year; the prices of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan and Jiangxi were 292,000 yuan/ton, up 8,700 week - on - week and up 63,400 year - on - year [94].
华宝期货有色金属周报-20251201
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-12-01 11:56