地方债周报：地方债发行利差走阔-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week ending December 1, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, fundraising directions, and trading activities [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - Net Financing: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 351.4 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 199.2 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 325.9 billion yuan, with new general bonds at 8.7 billion yuan, new special bonds at 225.3 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds at 68.8 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds at 48.6 billion yuan [1][9]. - Issuance Terms: The 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (27%) this week, and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 76%, slightly down from last week. The 30 - year bonds' issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 5 - year bonds' decreased by about 8 percentage points [1][12]. - Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 82.7 billion yuan were issued. As of now, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue special refinancing bonds totaling 2.2802 trillion yuan in 2025, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou are expected to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively [2][15]. - Issuance Spreads: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 20.4bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 25.8bp, and spreads for all terms widened. Jilin, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 25bp [1][25]. - Fundraising Directions: As of the end of this week, the main fundraising directions of new special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve increased by 16.9% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.3% [2][28]. - Issuance Plans: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their fourth - quarter 2025 local government bond issuance plans. Considering the actual issuance in October and November, the total planned issuance in the fourth quarter is nearly 1.6 trillion yuan, with 104.9 billion yuan in December. Next week, 108.7 billion yuan of local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a repayment amount of 48.2 billion yuan and net financing of 60.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 265.4 billion yuan compared to this week [3][33]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - Secondary Spreads: This week, the secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, while those of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 18.7bp and 16.4bp respectively. In terms of historical quantiles over the past three years, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 30 - year bonds were at relatively high levels, 44% and 70% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of bonds over 20 - year in each region were relatively high, between 14 - 18bp, and those of bonds over 10 - year in medium - level regions were also relatively high [5][36]. - Trading Volume: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. Shenzhen and Chongqing had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 379 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.70%. Guangdong had the largest trading volume at 3.62 billion yuan, while Shenzhen and Chongqing had the highest turnover rates at 2.0% and 1.6% respectively [5][41].