Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rubber: On Monday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center shifted slightly down to around 15,250 yuan/ton, closing down 1.07% at 15,250 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - Methanol: On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating steadily, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a maximum of 2,142 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,103 yuan/ton, closing up 0.47% at 2,136 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 96 yuan/ton. As the methanol supply - demand outlook improves, the methanol futures price is expected to have a valuation repair market [7]. - Crude Oil: On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating steadily, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a maximum of 458.4 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 449.5 yuan/barrel, closing up 1.06% at 455.7 yuan/barrel. The supply surplus competes with the seasonal demand recovery, and combined with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the Russia - Ukraine conflict may end, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil weakens [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - Rubber - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, an increase of 16,300 tons or 3.60% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 71,900 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 397,000 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week. Some sample enterprises of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires had maintenance during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The main reasons for maintenance were insufficient overall orders and slow shipment, and some sample enterprises had equipment transformation, affecting the overall production capacity release. It is expected that in the next cycle, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will show a restorative increase. However, the overall demand growth space is limited, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in capacity utilization rate [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The automobile market continued to develop well, and the monthly production and sales reached a record high for the same period [10]. - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. This is the seventh consecutive month of year - on - year positive growth since April this year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles. It is certain that the annual sales will exceed one million, and it may even reach 1.1 million [10]. - Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.77%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a slight increase of 4.08% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a significant increase of 134,000 tons compared with 1.8802 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.28%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.31%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. As of November 21, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 316 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week recovery of 7 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month rebound of 537 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.2439 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,900 tons, and a significant increase of 184,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 373,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a slight increase of 4,500 tons compared with 369,200 tons in the same period last year [12]. - Crude Oil - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 419, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 60 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.9 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 2.774 million barrels and a significant decrease of 1.519 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 21.753 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 68,000 barrels; the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 411 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.3 percentage points, a month - on - month recovery of 5.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points [13]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 60,991 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13,318 contracts and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the average in September of 97,848 contracts. On the other hand, as of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 125,587 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 52,240 contracts and a significant increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the average in October of 119,411 contracts [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,000 yuan/ton | - 160 yuan/ton | 15,250 yuan/ton | + 200 yuan/ton | - 250 yuan/ton | + 160 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,125 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | 2,136 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | - 11 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 419.3 yuan/barrel | + 1.8 yuan/barrel | 455.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 36.5 yuan/barrel | - 2.0 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19][23][25][27] - Methanol: Methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][31][33][35][37] - Crude Oil: Crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, Brent crude oil net position holding change [41][43][45][47][49][52]
橡胶甲醇原油：偏多氛围主导能化震荡企稳
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-12-01 12:10