GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-01 12:12Industry Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains an "overweight" rating [49] - The real estate industry maintains an "overweight" rating [57] - The insurance industry maintains an "overweight" rating [86] Core Viewpoints - Global risk preferences have significantly declined, leading to asset price fluctuations and panic selling. However, China's capital market is expected to recover in valuation and experience significant development, with A/H shares, industrial commodities recommended for tactical overweight, and US dollars for tactical underweight [20][21] - The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December has risen significantly, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's monetary policy. The Chinese economy is expected to gradually stabilize, and the policies of various industries will promote the improvement of industry fundamentals [8][15] - The technology theme is expected to return to the main line, and themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are worthy of attention [29] Summary by Directory Macro Reports - Global Asset Performance: From November 24 - 28, 2025, major global stock markets rose, commodities generally increased, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [5] - US Economy: Manufacturing new orders increased, housing price growth slowed, and consumer growth also slowed [6] - European Economy: Business confidence in the eurozone stabilized [7] - Overseas Policies: The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December rose to 80%, the ECB President said the current interest rate was appropriate, the UK's budget faced a "technical leak", Japan's bond - issuing plan tilted towards short - term bonds, and the BOJ's December interest rate hike expectation did not increase [8][9][10] - China's Economy: Consumption, investment, and production showed structural differentiation. The manufacturing PMI marginally rebounded due to improved external demand, and the construction industry's business activity index also increased marginally, but the service industry's declined [13][15] Asset Allocation Report - A/H Shares: Tactical overweight is maintained due to multiple factors supporting China's equity performance, such as the release of micro - trading risks and the approaching policy window [20] - Treasury Bonds: Tactical standard allocation is maintained because of the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, and the central bank may take action to maintain market liquidity [20] - Industrial Commodities: Tactical overweight is maintained as industrial metals like copper may face supply - demand imbalances, with strong demand and increasing development costs [21] - US Dollars: Tactical underweight is maintained as the Fed's policy adjustment and the marginal convergence of the US economy reduce the dollar's allocation value [21] Strategy Reports - Asset Overview: Global risk preferences recovered, stocks and commodities rose, silver and copper prices hit record highs, and the dollar index weakened. A - shares and other major global stock markets generally rebounded, and the bond market showed a pattern of a bearish steepening in China and a bullish steepening in the US [23][24][25] - Theme Analysis: The trading heat of hot themes was stable, the technology theme returned, and funds flowed into AI and communication. Themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are recommended [29] Overseas Strategy Reports - Fund Flows: North - bound funds may have a small net inflow, and south - bound funds' inflow into e - commerce and retail reached a new high since October. Overseas funds showed different flow trends in different markets [36][37] - Policy Tracking: Domestic policies covered macro, industrial, and local aspects, and overseas policies included diplomatic, economic, and interest - rate - related policies [39][40][43] Industry Reports - Steel: Demand is expected to stabilize, supply is expected to contract, and the industry's fundamentals are expected to gradually recover. Companies with product and cost advantages are recommended [45][48][49] - Utilities: The proportion of long - term contract electricity in 2026 is expected to decrease, electricity prices may have limited declines, and the industry's valuation is expected to improve [52] - Real Estate: The transaction volume in large and medium - sized cities rebounded, and the spot - housing sales are beneficial to the industry's healthy development [57][58] - Food and Beverage: CPI data has boosted the sector's expectations. Different sub - sectors such as liquor, beverages, and snacks have corresponding investment recommendations [62] - Robotics: Overseas and domestic companies have made progress in the field of humanoid robots, and investment in this field is active. Core component suppliers and整机 manufacturers are recommended [67][68][69] - Machinery: The weekly operating load rate of industrial gases increased, and important projects such as the second - phase of the Huanneng Jintan salt - cavern compressed - air energy - storage project advanced. Related companies are recommended [73][74][75] - Insurance: In October 2025, the growth rate of life and property insurance premiums declined marginally. The industry is optimistic about the growth of the life insurance's new business value (NBV) in the 2026 opening season and the continuous improvement of the property insurance's combined ratio (COR) [83][84][85] - Agriculture: Corn prices rose, the pet food market showed different trends at home and abroad, and the pig - breeding industry needs to pay attention to the epidemic and demand. Related companies in different sub - sectors are recommended [88][89][90] - Textile and Apparel: The US clothing retail industry showed growth, and the overseas K - shaped consumption trend continued. Export - manufacturing and brand - end companies are recommended [93][94][95]