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Core Viewpoints - Overall, production is weak during the off - season, credit momentum shows a weak recovery, external demand improves marginally, and there is still uncertainty in the year - end fundamentals, but the bond market can still be viewed optimistically [2]. - In the production sector, the November production PMI and its month - on - month change are lower than the seasonal average, and the year - on - year production is expected to decline slightly [2]. - In the demand sector, in terms of investment, the average prices of cement and asphalt decreased in November, infrastructure remained weak, real estate investment was weak with continued year - on - year decline in sales, and manufacturing investment showed weak recovery with marginal improvement in new orders but a month - on - month decline in the enterprise business condition index; in terms of consumption, the pre - placement of the Double Eleven event reduced its impact, and the year - on - year growth of social retail sales is expected to continue to decline slightly; in terms of foreign trade, the high - frequency indicators of external demand showed marginal improvement in November, and both exports and imports are expected to increase slightly year - on - year [2]. - Bill rates first rose and then fell, and credit momentum continued the weak recovery trend. Even considering the possible matching of enterprise medium - and long - term loans due to the implementation of policy - based financial instruments, enterprise and household credit may still increase less compared to the same period last year [2]. - In terms of prices, pork prices decreased slightly while fresh vegetable prices increased significantly. The year - on - year CPI is expected to rise significantly, and the ex - factory price index and the purchase price index of major raw materials remained divergent, with the year - on - year decline of PPI expected to widen slightly [2]. - Overall, it is expected that in November, the year - on - year industrial added value will be 4.7%, the cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment will be - 2.5%, the year - on - year social retail sales will be 2.6%, the year - on - year exports will be 3.9%, the year - on - year imports will be 3.3%, the year - on - year CPI will be 0.9%, and the year - on - year PPI will be - 2.3%. It is also expected that the new credit in November will be 450 billion yuan, the new social financing will be 2.02 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year M2 will be 8.3% [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real - Economy Data - It is expected that the year - on - year industrial added value in November will be 4.7%, and the year - on - year in December will be 4.9%. From 2021 - 2024, the month - on - month industrial added value in November had a high correlation with PMI but a low correlation with high - frequency data. The production PMI and its month - on - month change were lower than the seasonal average, and the high - frequency data of the asphalt plant operating rate was weak [7]. - It is expected that the cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment in November will be - 2.5%, and in December it will be about - 3%. Infrastructure investment remained weak in November, with the construction PMI rising 0.5 percentage points to 49.6% but still at a low level in the past 10 years, and the average prices of cement and asphalt decreasing; real estate investment continued to weaken, with the decline in new home sales expanding and second - hand home sales declining year - on - year; manufacturing investment remained stable, with the new order PMI rising 0.4 percentage points to 49.2% but still in the contraction range and the enterprise business condition index decreasing 0.43 percentage points to 51.56% [8]. - It is expected that the year - on - year social retail sales in November will be 2.6%, and in December it will be 2.9%. The service PMI decreased 0.7 percentage points to 49.5% in November. In terms of high - frequency data, automobile consumption weakened, with the retail sales of passenger cars from November 1 - 23 decreasing 11% year - on - year and 2% compared to the previous month, while non - commodity consumption showed strong resident travel intensity [9]. - It is expected that the year - on - year CPI in November will be 0.9%, and in December it will be 1.1%. Pork prices decreased slightly while vegetable prices increased significantly in November, and considering the low base last year, the CPI is expected to rise. Looking forward, pork prices will remain low in the short term, and vegetable prices may decline seasonally. It is expected that the year - on - year PPI in November will be - 2.3%, and in December it will be - 2.2%. The ex - factory price index and the purchase price index of major raw materials increased in November, and the average price of crude oil decreased while the average prices of rebar and LME copper increased slightly, and the average price of coking coal decreased slightly [9][10]. 2. November Import and Export Data Forecast 2.1 Expected November Export Year - on - Year Growth of 3.9% - High - frequency indicators of external demand showed marginal improvement in November. The SCFI index continued to rise, the BDI index fluctuated upwards, and the container load of the top 20 ports recovered. However, considering the end of the year - end export rush, the decline in European manufacturing prosperity, and the US government shutdown, it may be difficult for the export growth rate to return to the level before October. It is expected that the year - on - year export growth in November will be 3.9%, and in December it will be 1.3% [18]. 2.2 Expected November Import Year - on - Year Growth of 3.3% - The new order sub - index of the November PMI increased, and the import freight rate recovered. The new order sub - index of the manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, and the import sub - index of the PMI rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating marginal but weak recovery of domestic demand. The CDFI index fluctuated upwards in November. It is expected that the year - on - year import growth in November will be 3.3%, and in December it will be 0.1% [30]. 3. Monetary Credit: Increase in the Proportion of Direct Financing 3.1 Expected November New Credit of 450 Billion Yuan - It is expected that in November 2025, the new credit will be 0.45 trillion yuan, in December it will be about 0.95 trillion yuan, and in January 2026 it will be 5.35 trillion yuan. Enterprise credit is expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. Manufacturing PMI rose slightly in November but was still below the boom - bust line, so enterprise short - term loans are expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year; the issuance of special refinancing bonds increased, and the implementation of policy - based financial instruments may support enterprise medium - and long - term loans, so enterprise medium - and long - term loans are expected to increase both month - on - month and year - on - year. Resident credit is also expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. The Double Eleven event supported consumption, so resident short - term loans are expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year; due to the high - base effect and weak real estate sales, resident medium - and long - term loans are also expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. Table - based bill financing and non - bank loans are expected to decline both month - on - month and year - on - year, while overseas loans are expected to increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [38][39]. 3.2 Expected November New Social Financing of 2.02 Trillion Yuan and M2 Year - on - Year Growth of 8.3% - It is expected that in November 2025, the new social financing will be about 2.02 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth of the social financing balance will decline to 8.4%. In December 2025 and January 2026, the new social financing is expected to be about 1.46 trillion yuan and 7.20 trillion yuan respectively, and the year - on - year growth of the balance will be about 8.0%. Direct financing is expected to be about 145.4 billion yuan, including about 120 billion yuan of government bond financing, about 20 billion yuan of enterprise bond financing, and about 5.4 billion yuan of stock financing. Non - standard financing is expected to be about 17.5 billion yuan, including about 2.5 billion yuan of entrusted loans and trust loans and about 15 billion yuan of off - balance - sheet bills. Other sub - items are expected to total 7 billion yuan. Considering the growth rate of social financing and government bond expenditures, the year - on - year M2 growth in November is expected to be about 8.3%, and in December 2025 and January 2026, M2 is expected to be 7.9% and 8.1% respectively [40][44].
固收定期报告：宏观年末经济是否修复？
CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-01 12:52