宏观经济专题：工业生产与需求边际走弱

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain weak, with operating rates for asphalt plants, cement shipments, and grinding mills at historical lows[2] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, but some sectors are showing signs of weakness, such as PTA operating rates dropping to historical lows[2] - Demand for construction materials, automotive sales, and home appliances continues to decline, with rebar and building materials demand at historical lows[3] Prices - Domestic industrial product prices are fluctuating weakly, with black metals and coal prices recovering while construction materials are declining[4] - International commodity prices, including crude oil and copper, are experiencing weak fluctuations, while aluminum prices are rising[4] Real Estate - New housing transactions show significant year-on-year declines, with a 43% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, but still down 14% and 31% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[5] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with transaction volumes in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai down 20% and 29% year-on-year respectively[5] Exports - Port throughput increased by 9.6% year-on-year, with November exports expected to show a positive growth of approximately 8.4%[6] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.52% and DR007 at 1.47% as of November 28[6] - The central bank has implemented a net injection of 12,973 billion yuan in recent weeks[6] Risk Warning - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[6]