12月沪铜月度报告：冠通期货研究报告-20251201

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: The end of the US government shutdown and the release of economic data influence the market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut. Currently, it is generally believed that the probability of a December rate cut is high, which is positive for copper prices. In China, the manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business conditions [6]. - Supply aspect: After the mudslide accident at the second - largest copper mine in Indonesia, it plans to restart large - scale production in phases from the second quarter of 2026, which will ease the tight copper ore supply and stabilize copper prices. Due to smelter overhauls in October and November, domestic copper production is expected to increase in December. The copper smelting processing fee fluctuates around $42 per dry ton. The CSPT members have reached a consensus to cut production by more than 10% in 2026 [6]. - Demand aspect: As of September 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.3218 million tons. After the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", although the copper price continued to rise, the downstream's resistance to high prices led to a decline in buying interest. However, the rigid demand from the power grid and energy storage sectors will prevent a significant decrease in demand [6]. - Overall: In November, copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend. In the short - to - medium term, copper prices are expected to be strong. The future movement of copper prices depends on the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut. Although the demand is in the off - season and has limited support for prices, the industry's production cut plan will stimulate price increases [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Environment - US employment data: In September, the US added 119,000 non - farm jobs (previous value: 22,000), and the unemployment rate was 4.4% (previous value: 4.3%). The non - farm data for October - November will be released after the December FOMC meeting [10]. - China's PMI: In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business conditions [14]. Copper Supply - side Data Copper Concentrate Supply - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 674,000 tons, an increase of 213,000 tons from the previous month. In October 2025, China imported 2.45 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%; the cumulative import from January to October was 25.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [23]. - Production: The second - largest copper mine in Indonesia plans to restart large - scale production in phases from the second quarter of 2026, which will ease the tight copper ore supply. In September, the global copper concentrate production was 1.914 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1,000 tons; from January to September, the global copper concentrate production was 17.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons [23]. Smelter Fees - As of November 28, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was - $42.7 per dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.35 cents per pound. The copper smelting processing fee fluctuates around $42 per dry ton. The CSPT members plan to cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to improve the market environment and deal with the distorted copper concentrate processing fee problem. The industry generally expects the 2026 long - term contract price to be negative [27]. Scrap Copper Supply - In October 2025, China imported 196,600 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 1.8956 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.97%. Japan is the largest supplier of scrap copper [32]. Refined Copper Supply - Production: In October, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 29,400 tons month - on - month (- 2.62%), but was 9.63% higher year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative production increased by 1.1914 million tons year - on - year. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in November will continue to decline, but with the resumption of production in December, domestic production will increase [37]. - Import: In October 2025, China's refined copper imports were 323,144.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is the largest source of imports [37]. Copper Demand Conditions Apparent Demand - As of October 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.3218 million tons. After the peak seasons, due to the high copper price, the downstream's buying interest decreased, but the rigid demand from the power grid and energy storage sectors will prevent a significant decrease in demand [45]. Copper Products - From January to October 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 20.124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The production of household air - conditioners decreased, and the high - price copper raw materials squeezed profits, so the copper tube operating rate continued to decline. The copper foil market was relatively good, but due to the change in the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy, the copper foil demand is expected to weaken [48]. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; the installed wind power capacity was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. From January to October, the national power generation equipment's average utilization hours were 2,619 hours, a decrease of 260 hours compared with the same period last year [52]. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to October, the real estate development enterprises' housing construction area was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [57]. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In October, the monthly sales of new energy vehicles were 1.715 million, a year - on - year increase of 20%, and the proportion in the total monthly new vehicle sales exceeded 50% for the first time. From January 1, 2026, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will be restored [61]. Copper Inventory Data Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - As of November 28, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 159,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.07%. The COMEX copper inventory was 418,700 short tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.79% and a year - on - year increase of 361.68%. The large accumulation of copper in the US has led to an imbalance in the global copper structure [68]. Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Bonded Area Copper Inventories - As of November 28, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic copper inventory was 35,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 602 tons (- 1.68%) and a year - on - year increase of 66.24%. The copper inventory increased temporarily due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, but overall it was still being depleted. As of November 27, the total copper inventory in the Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 113,200 tons, showing a downward trend [73].