餐饮会员流量跟踪系列：从美团与霸王茶姬财报再议外卖大战的得与失

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][37]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the recent financial performance of major players in the food delivery sector, including Meituan, JD Group, Alibaba, and Bawang Chaji, highlighting the impact of the ongoing delivery battle on their operations and profitability [1][2][3]. - It emphasizes that the low-frequency, low-ticket order subsidies are the primary reason for the significant losses in the instant retail business, which includes food delivery [2][19]. - The report suggests that the platforms are likely to return to a more rational subsidy strategy, focusing on high-ticket orders to improve unit economics [2][19]. Summary by Sections Meituan - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenues of 954.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but faced an adjusted net loss of 160.1 billion yuan, shifting from profit to loss [1][6]. - The core local business revenue was 674.5 billion yuan, down 2.8%, with an operating loss of 140.7 billion yuan [8][10]. - The food delivery segment is expected to see a 15% increase in order volume, but a 13% decline in revenue due to a decrease in average order value (AOV) and lower monetization rates [8][10]. JD Group and Alibaba - JD Group's Q3 2025 new business losses reached 157 billion yuan, while Alibaba's instant retail business incurred losses of approximately 361 billion yuan, with a per-order loss of about 5.3 yuan [2][17]. - Both companies are experiencing significant pressure on their overall performance due to the losses in their instant retail segments [2][19]. Bawang Chaji - Bawang Chaji reported a revenue of 32.08 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 9.4%, with an adjusted net profit of 5.03 billion yuan, down 22.2% [3][21]. - The company has chosen a cautious approach to the delivery battle, avoiding price wars to maintain brand integrity and product strategy [3][32]. - The report notes that Bawang Chaji's same-store GMV declined by 27.9% in the Greater China region, reflecting the competitive pressures in the market [21][32]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading restaurant brands that are likely to benefit from increased subsidy efforts and are in a strong operational season, such as Guoquan, Haidilao, Yum China, and Xiaocaiyuan [3][37]. - It also highlights the potential of tea brands like Guming and Mixue Group, which are actively expanding their product offerings and private traffic strategies [3][37].