高盛：80张图看遍全球 - 中国贸易动态和苏伊士运河重开

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant shift in China's export dynamics, with a projected growth of approximately 1% in 2025, slightly above the global average, highlighting China's continued importance in global trade [1]. Core Insights - China's trade volume has shown a notable increase of 5% year-on-year in recent months, with exports diversifying towards Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and Europe following U.S. tariff impositions [2]. - The reopening of the Suez Canal is expected to reduce ton-mile demand by about 10%, impacting the supply-demand balance and significantly affecting industry profits [4]. - Container shipping companies may face uncertainty between price wars and rational behavior, with the charter market likely to bear most of the pain, leading to potential substantial declines in performance or even losses [4]. Summary by Sections China's Trade Dynamics - In 2025, China's export share in global exports is expected to grow by approximately 1%, indicating a robust position in global trade [1]. - The trade volume for China has increased by 5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, maintaining a strong trend without significant slowdown [2]. U.S. Import Trends - U.S. imports are experiencing a temporary decline, with a 7% year-on-year drop in sales for the fourth quarter, potentially accelerating to 10% in winter due to ongoing inventory destocking [3]. - If the U.S. economy stabilizes or improves in 2026, trade volumes are expected to stabilize or grow [3]. Impact of Suez Canal Reopening - The reopening of the Suez Canal could lead to a 10% reduction in ton-mile demand, creating a significant deflationary shock to the industry [4]. - Issues such as port congestion, low production efficiency, and strikes may partially offset the impacts of the Suez Canal reopening [4]. - Companies that diversify their operations and are not solely reliant on maritime business will be less affected by the reopening [4].