金信期货日刊-20251202

Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, dated December 2, 2025, covering various futures markets including coking coal, stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, methanol, and pulp [1][2] Coking Coal Futures - Investment Rating: Bullish - Core View: The core logic for going long on coking coal futures revolves around supply - demand tight balance, policy support, and industrial chain linkage [3] - Key Points - Supply - side Contraction: At the end of the year, coal mines are affected by safety production assessment inspections and are close to their annual production targets, leading to active production cuts. Although Mongolian coal has high short - term customs clearance volume, its inventory is low, and winter low temperatures will drag down the clearance volume. With the normalization of environmental protection inspections, supply increment is limited, and the whole - chain inventory continues to decline, supporting price increases [3] - Robust Demand: Coking coal is the core raw material for coking. After the price increase of coke is implemented, coke enterprises are operating at a high level, and steel mills' pig iron production has increased year - on - year, resulting in strong rigid demand for coking coal. The winter stockpiling and replenishment of steel mills will start, and the procurement demand will be released intensively, further pushing up the price [3] - Policy and Industrial Chain Linkage: Under the "anti - involution" policy in the second half of the year, the industry self - regulates production, and the energy bureau checks over - production, leading to the fermentation of supply contraction expectations. Coking coal has a high correlation with futures such as rebar, and the recovery of steel prices drives the linked rise of coking coal futures. Traders have a strong willingness to hold prices under low inventory, which also helps the futures market to follow the rise [4] Stock Index Futures - Core View: On December 1st (Monday), the Shanghai Composite Index had a good start, and the trading volume, which had been shrinking, increased significantly. Technically, the current upward cycle is not over, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fill the previous gap. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Gold Futures - Core View: Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase the rise or kill the fall [9] Iron Ore Futures - Core View: The market is looking for a bottom, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with high - selling and low - buying strategies [11] Glass Futures - Core View: The daily melting volume has declined, and inventory reduction started this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus policies and the "anti - involution" policy for supply - side clearance. Technically, the market has fallen today and should be regarded as a short - term oscillation [15][16] Methanol Futures - Core View: The price has risen by more than 5% this week. Multiple factors support the market, including a sharp decline in coastal sample port inventories, supply disruptions caused by the centralized gas - limited shutdown of Iranian plants (a major international exporter), and the linkage effect formed by active port trading sentiment. Opportunities for long positions should be grasped [18] Pulp Futures - Core View: As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.172 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 0.05%. The inventory has changed little in this cycle, showing a trend of slight inventory reduction. Changshu Port has seen inventory accumulation. The futures market has shown an oscillatory trend recently [22]