每周宏观经济和资产配置研判-20251202

Domestic Macro Viewpoints - In 2026, consumption and export growth are expected to slightly decline, while investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly, becoming a notable driver of economic growth[5] - The budget deficit rate is expected to remain stable, but the scale of special bonds will see limited growth, leading to a slight decline in the overall broad deficit rate[5] - The fiscal and monetary policy stance will continue to be positive and accommodative, with an increasing probability of interest rate cuts in Q1[5] Overseas Macro Viewpoints - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 80%, influenced by weak non-farm payroll data and Fed Put expectations[2] - The timing of the rate cut, whether in December or January, has minimal impact on interest rates, as traders' pricing for cumulative rate cuts in December 2026 remains largely unchanged[2] - Attention should be paid to the voting results and the latest dot plot guidance from the December meeting[3] Bond Market Viewpoints - The 10-year government bond yield is currently fluctuating within the consensus range of 1.75%-1.85%[6] - The credit risk evolution is being monitored, particularly in light of liquidity pressures from Vanke's bond extension, with potential trading opportunities arising if credit risks escalate[6] Equity Market Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a final bottoming phase, with growth sectors leading the recovery trend[6] - If the Federal Reserve proceeds with the anticipated rate cut, the market is likely to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the AI industry chain and growth style[6] - The manufacturing PMI remains below 50%, indicating that the fundamentals do not support rising interest rates[6]