逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different price trends and influencing factors. Overall, most varieties are expected to be in a state of shock, with some having upward or downward trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Yesterday, the market showed shock and differentiation. Pay attention to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - Logic: Due to technical buying, US soybeans and soybean oil rose last Friday. Yesterday, domestic oils and fats showed shock and differentiation, with rapeseed oil showing a weak shock. From a macro - environmental perspective, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December, and there may be progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The crude oil market faces geopolitical uncertainties, and OPEC+ agreed to maintain the production forecast in 2026. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil fell slightly. From an industrial perspective, the planting of South American soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the planting of Brazilian soybeans is in the later stage. The planting of Argentine soybeans is expected to accelerate. As of the week of November 26, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans was 36%, with a five - year average of 37.24%. Continue to pay attention to China's procurement of US soybeans and changes in US biodiesel policies. Recently, the domestic soybean inventory is relatively high, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is relatively large, so the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. For palm oil, the expected increase in the monthly output of Malaysian palm oil in November has narrowed. The output of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.24% month - on - month according to MPOA and decreased by 0.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The exports of Malaysian palm oil in November decreased by 19.7% and 15.9% according to ITS and AmSpec respectively. Since this year, the consumption of palm oil by Indonesian biodiesel has increased year - on - year, and the inventory of Indonesian palm oil has remained low. The import of Indian vegetable oil may decline seasonally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply is currently tight, and the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. However, with the large - scale listing of Russian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage. Also, pay attention to changes in China - Canada trade relations and the import of Canadian rapeseed [5]. - Outlook: Soybean oil is expected to be in a strong shock, palm oil in a strong shock, and rapeseed oil in a shock. Recently, the sentiment in the oils and fats market has stabilized, the cost of domestic soybean oil continues to provide support, the domestic rapeseed supply is tight, and rapeseed oil continues to de - stock. Continue to pay attention to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil in November [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The spot price is firm, the futures market shows a shock, and the basis of soybean meal has increased slightly [6]. - Logic: On December 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes. The average profit of China's imported soybean crushing was - 49.58 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 12.64 yuan/ton or - 20.32%. Internationally, the premium and discount spread between North and South American soybeans has narrowed, and attention should be paid to China's procurement. South American soybeans are affected by La Nina. The global agricultural meteorological report shows that in the next two weeks, there will be significant climate differentiation in the main agricultural areas of South America: continuous heavy rain in the central and northern parts of Brazil, increasing the risk of local floods, while the drought in Argentina and southern Brazil is deteriorating, increasing the growth pressure on new - season corn and soybeans. Overall, it is expected that US soybeans will operate in the range of [1100 - 1170]. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean inventory is high, the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal is slow, and the logic of futures - spot convergence dominates the narrow - range fluctuation of the January contract. In the medium term, China has returned to the US soybean market, and the procurement progress in January has exceeded 45%. The import of Australian seeds is expected to be strong. The inventory of soybean meal of downstream feed and breeding enterprises has increased year - on - year. Pay attention to the performance of the consumption peak season in December. It is expected that the basis of soybean meal will increase slightly, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract may widen. In the long term, whether the weather in South America is normal determines the price trend and increase or decrease of soybean meal [6][7]. - Outlook: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to be in a shock. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased, China's procurement has returned to the US soybean market, and attention should be paid to the hype of La Nina for South American soybeans. It is expected that US soybeans will be in a high - level shock. The import crushing profit has been repaired, soybean procurement has accelerated, the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal by oil mills is slow, downstream buyers have placed orders at low prices in the futures market, and spot transactions have increased, leading to an increase in the basis. It is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be in a range - bound shock. Pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the change of the main contract [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - Viewpoint: The price in the Northeast continues to strengthen, and pressure is beginning to appear in North China [8]. - Logic: Today, domestic corn prices have shown mixed trends. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast has decreased significantly, and they have generally raised prices to increase the volume. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in North China is uneven, and enterprises adjust prices flexibly according to actual conditions. The arrival volume at ports has increased, and prices are temporarily stable under the support of demand. Recently, the futures and spot prices of corn have been strong. The core indicator supporting the strong price is the low - level operation of the inventory at northern ports, and this trend will temporarily continue. Due to the difference in grain quality structure and regional price spread, the outflow of corn from the Northeast is much higher than that of the same period last year, which is the core reason why the port inventory has not been accumulated. First, the quality of corn in North China is poor and the toxin content is high, so local corn cannot flow into the feed market in large quantities, resulting in feed enterprises in various places purchasing orders from the Northeast. Second, since the price of corn in the Northwest has been rising since the start of the purchase, the cost of traders is relatively high, and the price of corn in the Northwest is continuously inverted with the sales area, so it cannot supply the gap in the sales area in the short term. Therefore, the national demand depends on Northeast corn (with good quality and high bulk density) in the short term, resulting in a much higher outflow of Northeast corn than in previous years. In addition, many traders pre - sold corn (signed sales contracts but did not purchase) because the market was generally bearish before. As the contracts are approaching the expiration date, traders are rushing to purchase and ship the grain to fulfill the contracts; there are even cases of repeated purchases due to the tight transportation capacity, and the short - term concentrated demand has pushed up the price at northern ports. In North China, as the mainstream price in Shandong reaches 2300 yuan/ton, the market's reluctance to sell has been significantly alleviated, and the supply of wet corn has gradually increased, which will limit the further increase in prices. In the short term, the bullish driving force continues, and the price will maintain a strong shock. In the future, it is still necessary to wait for the release of upstream inventory and the alleviation of the downstream tense situation. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to remain in a high - level shock. Currently, it is a game between the realization of selling pressure and the inventory building of traders. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to changes in port inventory and wheat prices [8][9]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be in a shock. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the shock trend of the spot price will continue [9]. 3.4 Pigs - Viewpoint: The pressure of slaughter remains, and the price is in a low - level shock [10]. - Logic: Supply: In the short term, the number of second - fattened pigs in late November decreased by 18% month - on - month, and large pigs were put on the market. In the medium term, the production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 was still fluctuating at a high level, and the number of newly - born piglets from January to October continued to increase month - on - month. According to the breeding cycle, it is expected that the supply of commercial pigs will continue to be in excess until the first quarter of 2026. In the long term, the production capacity of sows began to decline in the third quarter of 2025. According to the samples of the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of sows decreased month - on - month from July to October, and the national sow inventory in October decreased to 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Currently, the self - breeding and self - raising of pigs continue to be in a loss state. Driven by "policy + loss", the reduction of sow production is expected to continue, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. Demand: There is sporadic bacon - curing in the South, and the demand drive is still insufficient. Inventory: The average slaughter weight has increased for three consecutive weeks. Rhythm: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, the inventory of large pigs is large, the slaughter weight of large - scale farms has increased, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has decreased month - on - month but is still at a high level, the supply and demand are loose, and the pig price is weak. In the medium term, according to the production capacity realization cycle of sows and piglets, the supply of commercial pigs will remain at a high level before the first quarter of 2026, and the cycle is still in a downward trend. In the long term, the production capacity of sows in the country began to show signs of decline in the third quarter of 2025. Currently, driven by "anti - involution + loss", the reduction of sow production is expected to continue, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be in a weak shock. In the near - term, in the fourth quarter, pigs are still in the period of high - level production capacity realization, and the pressure of large - pig slaughter at the end of the year will continue to weaken the pig price. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture guides enterprises to reduce production, and the breeding profit continues to be in a loss state, which is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The price of far - month contracts is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: It fell against the trend of industrial products, and the price is in a range - bound shock [12]. - Logic: Affected by the weakening of floods in Thailand, the pressure of increased output, the accumulation of inventory at domestic ports, and the weak trend of Japanese rubber, the price of natural rubber fell against the trend of industrial products yesterday. Recently, natural rubber has maintained a narrow - range shock pattern. Last week, the news of floods in the southern part of Thailand fermented, but the futures market did not respond accordingly. Instead, it oscillated downward under the influence of bearish news such as inventory accumulation, the addition of new delivery substitutes for NR, and the postponement of the EUDR confirmation. However, it was also supported by the downstream procurement enthusiasm and its relatively low valuation, and the decline was very limited. In the second half of the week, with the expectation of the flood receding in the production area and the gradual resumption of raw material procurement by processing plants, the futures market rebounded rapidly, but the upward pressure was still obvious. In the recent period, the futures market has basically maintained such a tug - of - war trend. Although the support below is strong and the long - term bullish consensus is high, it is also restricted by the current seasonal increase in output and the inventory - accumulation period. In the future, it is expected that there will be no strong unilateral driving force for the time being. Attention can be paid to the quantitative situation of domestic delivery products in mid - to - late December [12][14]. - Outlook: The fundamental variables are limited. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to maintain a wide - range shock with high elasticity, and it is still difficult to have a trend - like market unilaterally [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The driving force is not strong, and it maintains a follow - up shock [15]. - Logic: BR's price fell yesterday due to the weakening of natural rubber and its weak supply - demand situation. In the past two weeks, it has basically shown a shock - consolidation trend after rebounding from the listing low, but there is a lack of new marginal variables. It is waiting for new driving forces under the support of the natural rubber futures market and the good trading volume of butadiene. Although the short - term raw material pressure, especially the supply pressure shown by the butadiene port inventory, is relatively large, most of it has been reflected in the previous futures market's decline due to the expected increase in imports. So, for the time being, even if the raw material price has not improved and this price gives production enterprises a good processing profit, the futures market has not further traded this bearish situation. In the raw material market, the price of butadiene first fell and then rose last week, showing a slight shock overall. After the price was slightly pushed up in the early stage, there was a co - existence of the mentality of upstream enterprises to sell at high prices and downstream enterprises to buy at low prices, resulting in poor high - price transactions, and the market was under pressure to decline at the beginning of the week. However, the external market rose slightly during the week, and some domestic suppliers controlled the quantity and supported the price, driving the butadiene market to stop falling and oscillate in the middle of the week. Although there has been a continuous follow - up of rigid - demand buyers, the inventory has been at a high level recently, and the cautious supply - side expectation has also led to poor transactions of some slightly high - priced offers, and the market has maintained a small - range shock [15]. - Outlook: There is no upward driving force for the time being, and it is supported by natural rubber below. The futures market is expected to maintain a range - bound shock [15]. 3.7 Cotton - Viewpoint: The hedging pressure restricts the short - term upward height [15]. - Logic: In terms of supply, new cotton is continuously being listed, and the inspection progress is faster than in previous years. The output of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be between 7.3 - 7.5 million tons, an increase of 0.6 - 0.8 million tons year - on - year, and the supply is continuously increasing. In terms of demand, affected by seasonal factors, the number of new orders has slightly decreased month - on - month recently, but the overall level is still good, and there is no obvious bearish or negative feedback on the demand side. In terms of inventory, according to BCO data, currently in the peak listing period, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously increasing, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing. However, the inventory as of mid - November has decreased year - on - year, indicating that the apparent demand for cotton is good, which supports the price. Recently, the 01 contract has continued to rebound, and the support below is obvious. However, as the price rises, the hedging pressure gradually increases, and the upward space is limited. Overall, the short - term rebound space of the 01 contract is limited; in the long term, the cotton price may maintain a shock - strong pattern, and the far - month contracts have long - position allocation value [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, it is in a range - bound shock; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to be in a shock - strong pattern. It is advisable to buy on dips [16]. 3.8 Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar price is in a low - level shock [16]. - Logic: In the long - and medium - term, the domestic and international sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock. The core logic is that the global sugar market will have a loose supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Major producing countries such as Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. The prospect of supply surplus makes the long - term price of domestic and international sugar have a downward driving force, so the general direction of the sugar price is downward. In addition, StoneX expects that Brazil may further increase production in the 26/27 crushing season, making the long - term price outlook rather pessimistic. Currently, the Northern Hemisphere has entered the new - season sugar production. According to Pan - Sugar Technology Information, as of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, and 113 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, India, have started production, with a cumulative cane crushing of 1.03582 million tons. As the supply