公用事业行业跟踪周报:输配电成本监审和定价办法修订,采暖季最高用电负荷预计创供暖季历史新高-20251202
Soochow Securities·2025-12-02 00:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission has revised the pricing methods for transmission and distribution costs, aiming to promote the consumption of renewable energy and enhance power supply security [4]. - The highest electricity load during the heating season is expected to reach a historical peak, indicating a balanced energy supply and demand overall [4]. Industry Data Tracking - Electricity Price: The average electricity purchase price in November 2025 was 401 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [33]. - Coal Price: As of November 28, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 816 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.49% [43]. - Water Conditions: The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 173.41 meters, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 2.7% and 36.44% year-on-year, respectively [53]. - Electricity Consumption: Total electricity consumption from January to October 2025 was 8.62 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [13]. - Power Generation: Cumulative power generation from January to October 2025 was 8.06 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [20]. - Installed Capacity: As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.5 billion kW, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [47]. Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power: Focus on undervalued investment opportunities in thermal power, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, recommending companies like Jingtou Energy, Jingneng Power, and Datang Power [4]. - Charging Pile Equipment: Suggesting attention to companies like Teruid and Shenghong Shares [4]. - Photovoltaic Assets: Emphasizing the potential for value reassessment in photovoltaic and charging pile assets, recommending companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Group [4]. - Green Electricity: Anticipating improvements in asset quality and growth potential in green electricity, recommending companies like Longyuan Power and China Minmetals Energy [4]. - Hydropower: Highlighting the benefits of marketization and low-cost advantages, recommending Changjiang Power [4]. - Nuclear Power: Noting the growth potential and expected increases in profitability and dividends, recommending China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4].