宏观情绪偏暖，板块表现偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm, and the steel plate is strong. Although there are disturbances in the steel supply, the actual impact on production is limited. Iron ore has strong support, and coking coal and coke have rebounded from low levels [1]. - In the off - season, steel continues to destock, with limited fundamental contradictions. There may be positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the plate may have phased upward opportunities due to improved macro - sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron water production is expected to decline, and the rigid demand support for iron ore is weakening. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly, port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' import ore inventories are decreasing. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][8]. - Scrap steel arrivals are stable, and after the price drop, its cost - effectiveness has increased. The demand from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke supply has increased slightly, and steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. There is an expectation of winter storage replenishment, and the futures price is expected to follow coking coal to oscillate [2][10]. - The fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated, but the current valuation of the futures is too low. There is a strong expectation of winter storage replenishment, and the spot price has bottom support. Near - month contracts may oscillate, while far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [2][11]. 3.3 Alloys - The cost of ferromanganese silicon remains relatively high, but the market supply and demand are loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level [3][15]. - The cost of ferrosilicon supports the price bottom, but the market supply and demand are weak, and the price increase is weak. The futures price of the main contract is expected to run at a low level [3][16]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply may be disturbed, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, otherwise, the price will rise [6][12]. - The price of soda ash is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [6][14]. 3.5 Steel - The macro - environment is warm, and the steel plate is strong. Although the steel mill profitability is decreasing, the willingness to reduce production is limited. The demand is under pressure to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing, but the inventory level is still high year - on - year [7]. 3.6 Commodity Index - On December 1, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed an increase. The special indices such as the Commodity 20 Index and the Industrial Products Index also rose. The steel industry chain index had a daily increase of 1.24%, a 5 - day increase of 0.62%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.31%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.33% [99][100]