农产品早报2025-12-02：五矿期货农产品早报-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean: The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping to 28.94%. The bottom of the import cost may be apparent, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate [3][5]. - Palm Oil: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. The current supply surplus may reverse. If high - yield does not continue, the de - stocking time will come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [10]. - Sugar: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major countries, with the global supply - demand turning from shortage to surplus. The international sugar price may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to short on rallies and close positions on price drops [13]. - Cotton: Although the previous peak season was weak, the demand is not too bad after the peak season. The short - term capital inflow may push up the cotton price, but it's hard to have a unilateral trend [18]. - Eggs: Due to continuous losses, the sentiment of culling hens is strong. The short - term view is long, and the medium - term view is short [21]. - Pigs: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - Market Conditions: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell, Brazilian premiums declined slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 30 yuan/ton, with weak trading and good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.1353 million tons [2]. - Supply and Demand: The USDA predicts a shift in the global soybean supply - demand pattern, and the global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped. The domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching [3][5]. Oil - Market Conditions: On Monday, domestic oils fluctuated, with foreign capital adding short positions in palm oil and long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The spot basis in China is stable [8][9]. - Supply and Demand: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production had mixed changes. The total inventory of the three major domestic oils continued to decline last week, but was still higher than the same period last year. The floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not significantly affected palm oil production [7]. Sugar - Market Conditions: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract rose by 5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of new sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while the prices of processed sugar remained unchanged [12]. - Supply and Demand: As of December 1, 39 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 310,000 tons. The global sugar supply is expected to have a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season [12]. Cotton - Market Conditions: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly. The closing price of the January contract increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of cotton also increased, and the basis was 1171 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply and Demand: As of November 28, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons. In 2025, China's cotton imports decreased. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase [16]. Eggs - Market Conditions: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased slightly. The supply was relatively stable, the downstream sales were slow, and the inventory in the trading link increased slightly [20]. - Supply and Demand: Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling hens. The far - month contracts are strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting consumption stocking and capacity reduction [21]. Pigs - Market Conditions: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with partial declines. The average price in Henan and Sichuan increased slightly. The supply pressure from northern farmers and small farms increased, and the demand increase was limited [23]. - Supply and Demand: The theoretical slaughter volume is still large, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24].