格林大华期货早盘提示：股指-20251202

Report Industry Investment Rating - The team led by the head of Asia at J.P. Morgan and the co-head of global emerging markets equity strategy upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The major indices of the two markets oscillated upward on Monday, with the communication equipment and non-ferrous sectors leading the gains. The stock market rally may attract domestic and global capital inflows, and the market is expected to continue its upward trend. It is recommended to allocate long positions in stock index futures mainly based on the CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index, and conduct range trading. Also, look for opportunities to buy deep out-of-the-money long-term call options on stock indices [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets oscillated upward, with the communication equipment and non-ferrous sectors leading the gains. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.87 trillion yuan, showing an increase in volume during the rise. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,576 points, up 49 points or 1.10%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,993 points, up 24 points or 0.81%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7,101 points, up 70 points or 1.00%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,386 points, up 52 points or 0.72% [1] - Among industry and thematic ETFs, the top gainers were Gold Stock ETF Funds, Industrial Non-Ferrous ETFs, Communication Equipment ETFs, Internet of Things ETFs, and Tourism ETFs, while the top losers were ChiNext New Energy ETFs, ChiNext Innovative Drug ETFs (Guotai), and Agricultural ETFs (E Fund) [1] - Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top gainers were forestry, rare metals, industrial metals, communication equipment, and AI glasses indices, while the top losers were aquaculture, e-commerce, rail transit equipment, kitchen and bathroom appliances, and wind power equipment indices [1] - The settlement funds of CSI 300 and SSE 50 index stock index futures had net inflows of 1.6 billion yuan and 700 million yuan respectively [1] Important News - In November, the RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI shifted from expansion to contraction. Although new export orders improved, they failed to drive the manufacturing industry to continue expanding. Considering the need to achieve the annual growth target of 5%, there may be a phased boost on the supply and demand sides at the end of the year, and it is expected that the PMI in December will show weak expansion [1] - The first batch of 7 ETFs closely tracking the CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence Index was launched, and some ETFs were sold out on the first day of issuance. Dozens of ETFs focusing on various industry themes such as the CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Robot, CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Semiconductor, and SSE Star Market Innovative Drugs are in the application process [1] - In October, the scale of newly registered private fund products was only over 40 billion yuan, which was at a normal level. However, the existing scale increased by 1.14 trillion yuan during the same period, with an increase of more than 17 percentage points, indicating that the growth came from the funds and net values of "old products" [1] - Li Bei, the founder of Banxia Investment, stated that the wealthy are facing an asset shortage with nowhere to place their wealth. The profit-making effect of the stock market will trigger the transfer of household savings, the reconfiguration of domestic institutional asset allocation, and the reconfiguration of global funds and the return of overseas capital to the Chinese market. This round of market may become a bubble and reach a considerable height [1][3] - The silver price reached a new high, and China's silver inventory dropped to a seven-year low of 715.8 tons. This market situation not only reflects the supply-demand imbalance caused by China's record export of 660 tons of silver in October but also confirms that supply-driven price increases are spreading from precious metals to industrial metals, becoming a common trend in commodities [1] - Chinese domestic authority Han Yinhe disclosed that China has achieved a key breakthrough in space AI: the "one-star multi-card" space-based supercomputing architecture of the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, will be verified in orbit next year. The single-star computing power will achieve a leap through the domestic GPU array, marking China's transformation from a technology follower to a leader in space computing [2] - ByteDance released a technical preview version of Doubao Mobile Assistant, which is embedded in ZTE's mobile phone system. This AI has amazing "intelligent agent" capabilities and can simulate manual cross-App operations, which may trigger a major shock in the industry [2] - Elon Musk said that in the future, the technologies of SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI will gradually integrate to form a self-sufficient ecosystem. This system may break away from the traditional monetary system, and its generated value and output will far exceed those of other industries [2] - With only three months left until the Spring Festival, if the US inventory remains high, the copper price may soar in spring. The current main risks focus on the December FOMC meeting and changes in AI capital expenditure expectations. Technical charts show that the copper price is at a critical breakthrough point, and the underestimated force of hoarding demand is rewriting the supply-demand pattern [2] - Morgan Stanley said that humanoid robots, as the ultimate form of "physical AI," mark a key chapter in human history. By 2050, the global humanoid robot market is expected to reach $5 trillion, and the cumulative deployment volume will reach 1 billion units. During this decades-long growth, semiconductors have become the biggest variable and increment [2] - Goldman Sachs' latest 2026 asset outlook survey shows that technology stocks remain the top choice, but the slowdown of AI is regarded as the biggest risk. The market generally bets that the Fed will cut interest rates twice next year, and the number of people bullish on the US dollar is slightly more than those bearish. In terms of commodities, nearly 70% of investors are bullish on gold, and more than half are bearish on crude oil, showing a sharp contrast [2] - The governor of the Bank of Japan clearly stated that the central bank will "consider raising interest rates" and "make the right decision" at the December meeting. He emphasized that if the economic outlook is realized, interest rates will be raised, and he hopes to raise the interest rate to 0.75% before further elaborating on the future interest rate hike path. The upcoming spring wage negotiation is a key decision point [2] Market Logic - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets oscillated upward, with the communication equipment and non-ferrous sectors leading the gains. The scale of newly registered private fund products in October was normal, but the existing scale increased significantly. J.P. Morgan upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight," and Alibaba is making efforts in AI to B and AI to C. Overseas funds have flowed into the Chinese stock market in large amounts, and Morgan Stanley expects the Chinese stock market to continue rising in 2026 [1][2][3] Future Outlook - The major indices of the two markets oscillated upward on Monday. The profit-making effect of the stock market may attract domestic and global capital inflows, and this round of market may become a bubble. There is no so-called AI bubble in the next three years. The bullish sentiment of traders towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14-year high. Overseas funds have flowed into the Chinese stock market in large amounts. J.P. Morgan upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight," and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to over 85%. As the focus of AI shifts to applications, the computing power chain has strengthened again. The major indices of the two markets continued to oscillate and recover on Monday, and the recovery direction in the future remains unchanged. It is recommended to allocate long positions in stock index futures mainly based on the CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index, and conduct range trading [1][2][3] Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: As the focus of AI shifts to applications, the computing power chain has strengthened again. The major indices of the two markets continued to oscillate and recover on Monday, and the recovery direction in the future remains unchanged. Allocate long positions in stock index futures mainly based on the CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index, and conduct range trading [3] - Stock index option trading: The stock index is in the period of oscillating recovery. Look for opportunities to buy deep out-of-the-money long-term call options on stock indices [3]