秩序重构下的新旧资产系列 3：百年黄金史：不同的时代，相同的避险

Group 1: Gold Market Characteristics - The current gold bull market is characterized by simultaneous increases in both risk assets (stocks) and safe-haven assets (gold) [2] - Gold has significantly outperformed U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar during this bull market [5] - The price of gold has increased approximately 200% since 2018, reflecting its strategic reserve property amid global uncertainties [7] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Cycles - Historical analysis reveals three distinct cycles of gold price increases: 23-fold from 1970-1980, 6-fold from 2001-2012, and approximately 2-fold from 2018 to present [7] - The first cycle (1970-1980) was driven by inflation concerns, with gold prices rising due to high inflation rates, peaking during the oil crises [6] - The second cycle (2001-2012) was influenced by financial attributes, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis, where gold became a key financial asset [6] Group 3: Macro Factors Influencing Gold - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation, opportunity costs, and the collapse of the fiat currency system, reflecting its three properties: commodity, financial, and monetary [8] - The shift in global economic power dynamics has led to a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, especially as confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasuries wanes [9] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases since 2022, marking a notable change in demand structure [7]