能源化策略：乌克兰袭击俄罗斯基础设施，原油和化?延续震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to experience weak and volatile trends, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - In December, the rebound space of the industry is expected to be limited under the weak fundamental outlook, and special attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Geopolitical Factors: The situation in the Caribbean region remains tense. After the reduction of Russian oil output, the marginal positive impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has diminished. The OPEC+ production policy is set until the first quarter of next year, with limited short - term disturbances. The global crude oil inventory has been rising since the fourth quarter, and the situation of supply surplus is difficult to change [7]. - Chemical Industry: The chemical industry as a whole continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Most liquid chemicals have accumulated inventory this week. The reduction of disproportionation load will help reduce the supply of pure benzene [3]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure persists. The weak fundamental situation in December limits the rebound space, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [4][7]. - Asphalt: Asphalt profits continue to be compressed. The supply and demand are both weak, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is high [4][8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price of high - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak and volatile trend. The three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak, and the demand is relatively weak [4][8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak and volatile trend. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy and high - sulfur fuel, but its current valuation is low and it follows the movement of crude oil [4][10]. - Methanol: The unloading at coastal areas fails to meet expectations, and the supply - demand situation in the inland provides phased support, so the upward trend of methanol continues [4]. - Urea: The progress of off - season storage slows down, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates [4]. - Ethylene Glycol: The rebound height is limited under the pressure of supply and demand, and the price fluctuates widely [4]. - PX: The market anticipates a shortage of raw materials in the second quarter in advance, and short - term benefits remain strong [4]. - PTA: Supported by strong upstream costs and an improved supply - demand pattern, the price rises synchronously [4]. - Short Fibers: Downstream customers make moderate replenishments in stages, but the willingness to continuously chase price increases is not strong [4]. - Bottle Chips: The support from the cost side strengthens, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants [4]. - Propylene: Driven by PG, PL fluctuates and rebounds [4]. - PP: Driven by propane but with limited fundamental support, attention should be paid to changes in maintenance [4]. - Plastic: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price fluctuates [4]. - Styrene: The inventory reduction continues in December, and market sentiment improves [4]. - PVC: There is a game between long and short positions, and PVC shows a weak rebound [4]. - Caustic Soda: The marginal cost decreases, and caustic soda fluctuates weakly [4]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - Period Spreads: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [31]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: It shows the basis, changes in basis, and the number of warehouse receipts for different varieties including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32]. - Inter - Variety Spreads: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads for different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [33].