中泰期货晨会纪要-20251202

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A shares showed a unilateral upward trend, with technology themes being active and sector rotation accelerating. The overall economy has short - term fluctuations, but the domestic industrial upgrade - driven economic transformation continues. [10] - In the futures market, different varieties have different trends based on fundamental and quantitative indicators. For example, some are in a trend of short - term shock, while others are in a long - term upward or downward trend. [2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - French President Macron will visit China from December 3 - 5. DeepSeek released and open - sourced two models. The approval of public - offering funds has an inverse - cycle adjustment mechanism. [6] - In November, the average price of new homes in 100 cities increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while the average price of second - hand homes decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. Shanghai's second - hand housing market had a "tail - end rally". [6][7] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in November was below 50. The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest - rate hike. South Korea's exports in November increased year - on - year. Silver prices soared to a record high. [7][8] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a shock - based strategy and wait and see for the time being. A shares rose unilaterally, with technology themes being active. The economic data in October showed a short - term decline, but the industrial upgrade is continuing. [10] Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market may continue to fluctuate widely. The market is affected by factors such as expected central bank bond - buying and bond - fund redemptions. It is recommended to buy medium - and short - duration 10 - year bonds on dips and be cautious about ultra - long - duration bonds. [11][12] Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Pay attention to the impact of macro - level meetings on market expectations. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron ore is relatively strong. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term. [13] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety inspections, and changes in iron - water production. [13][14] Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon, there is a risk of increased surplus, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities. For silicon iron, it is recommended to hold long positions. [15] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see. For glass, it is advisable to try to go long on dips. Pay attention to supply - side changes such as production cuts and new - capacity launches. [16] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short on rallies. [18] Lead - The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. [19][20] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it will fluctuate widely. The long - term demand is good, but the short - term upward space is limited. [21] Industrial Silicon - The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will continue to fluctuate. [22] Polysilicon - It will continue to fluctuate. It is advisable to try to buy put options in the short term and stop profits in time. [23] Agricultural Products Cotton - There is short - term supply pressure and weak demand, but the high cost supports the price. The price is expected to rebound. [25][26] Sugar - The supply - demand situation is bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure weighs on the price, and it is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term. [27][28] Apples - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The purchase of late - maturing Fuji has ended, and the market is affected by factors such as inventory and competing fruits. [29] Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch", and the long - term supply pressure is large. [30] Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see for the time being. The prices in production and sales areas are stable at a low level. [31] Pigs - In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is limited. In the long term, the decline in the number of sows is beneficial to future prices. [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price is in a long - term downward trend. Although there are short - term positive factors, the supply - surplus problem is prominent. [35] Fuel Oil - The price will follow the trend of crude oil, with supply being loose and demand being weak. [36] Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy after rallies. [37][38] Rubber - The price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to factors such as raw - material supply and weather. [39] Synthetic Rubber - It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is advisable to short on rallies. [40] Methanol - In the short term, use a shock - based strategy for near - month contracts and a slightly bullish strategy for far - month contracts if inventory reduction is smooth. [41][42] Caustic Soda - The spot price is weakening. It is advisable to adopt a short - term weakly bearish strategy. [43][44] Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter - storage game. [45] Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - demand structure is okay, and it will follow the cost trend in the short term. [46] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price increase is difficult to sustain. It is advisable to short on rallies. [47] Pulp - The fundamentals are stable, and it will enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. [48] Logs - The price is under pressure in the short term and is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance. [49] Urea - The spot price is expected to be slightly bullish, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [50]