国新国证期货早报-20251202

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - On December 1, 2025, the A-share market performed well with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65% to 3914.01, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.25% to 13146.72, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.31% to 3092.50. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1873.9 billion yuan, an increase of 288.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Different futures varieties showed different trends and characteristics. For example, the CSI 300 index was strong, while some commodities like coke and coking coal had price fluctuations affected by supply - demand factors. Sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc. also had their own market situations influenced by various factors such as international prices, production, and consumption [2][4][5] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 1, the A - share market rose across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the 3900 - point mark, and the trading volume increased significantly [1] - The CSI 300 index closed at 4576.49 on December 1, a rise of 49.82 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The average profit per ton of coke improved due to upstream and downstream concessions. Supply increased slightly, while demand weakened. Total inventory remained basically unchanged [4] - Coking coal: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased. Supply had seasonal reduction expectations, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal was affected, while the arrival of seaborne coal remained high [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rise of US sugar on Friday and a slight decline in spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on December 1. Thailand's new sugar - crushing season started on December 1, and the sugarcane output is expected to recover significantly [4] Rubber - Affected by the comments of the Japanese central bank governor and the subsidence of floods in Southeast Asia, Japanese rubber fell sharply on December 1, and Shanghai rubber fluctuated lower during the day and closed slightly higher at night. Vietnam's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports decreased by 3.5% year - on - year in the first 10 months [4][5] Palm Oil - On December 1, the palm oil futures price entered a volatile trend after encountering resistance. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive line. In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased slightly compared with the previous month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures price fell on December 1. The US soybean export inspection volume was at the lower end of the market forecast range, and Brazilian soybean planting progress was slower than last year. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal was abundant, but South American weather and soybean arrivals provided support [5] Live Pigs - On December 1, the live pig futures price rose slightly. The supply of live pigs was strong due to concentrated slaughter and sufficient production capacity, while the demand recovery was slow. The market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract 2601 rose significantly on December 1, with a sharp increase in trading volume and open interest. Supported by macro - factors and supply shortages, the price center continued to move up, but there were risks of high - price suppressing demand [5][6] Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13785 yuan/ton at night on December 1. The cotton inventory decreased, and Xinjiang's cotton output in 2025 increased year - on - year [6] Logs - The log 2601 contract had a narrow range on December 1. The spot price remained stable, and the supply - demand relationship was not in great contradiction. Future price trends depend on factors such as spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [6] Iron Ore - On December 1, the iron ore 2601 main contract rose slightly. The shipping volume decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory increased. The iron ore price was in a volatile trend in the short term [6] Asphalt - The asphalt 2601 main contract closed slightly higher on December 1. The refinery's production plan decreased in December, the inventory decreased, and the demand was in the off - season. The price was in a volatile state [6] Steel - On December 1, the steel futures prices showed certain trends. The demand for steel in the off - season was resilient, and with the expected increase in steel mill maintenance and production reduction, the steel price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [6] Alumina - The alumina 2601 contract price was at a certain level on December 1. The market continued the logic of supply - demand surplus, with high domestic production capacity, increasing imports, and weak demand [6] Shanghai Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum 2601 contract price was at a certain level on December 1. The inventory decreased slightly, and the industry's operating rate increased in some fields. The price was in a high - level volatile state, and future trends depend on inventory performance [6][7]