供需偏紧，碳酸锂继续引领新能源金属走势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the supply - demand tightness persists. It continues to lead the trend of new energy metals. In the short - term, after the negative impact on investor sentiment, the price stops falling and rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus is expected to narrow, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the silicon price fluctuates in a range. The supply is affected by the dry season in the southwest and potential environmental protection and power - limit factors in the north, while the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - The policy expectation for polysilicon is rising again, and the price fluctuates at a high level. The supply is shrinking due to the dry season, and the "anti - involution" policy is expected to have an impact. The demand is weakening in November [7][9]. - The supply - demand gap of lithium carbonate is slightly improved, and the lithium price fluctuates at a high level. The supply is expected to remain strong, the demand is better than in previous years, and the inventory is being depleted. The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Information Analysis: The spot price is stable, the inventory is under pressure to accumulate, the production in November decreased, the export in October decreased, the photovoltaic new - installed capacity in October increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the organic silicon industry may enter a production - cut and price - support stage [6]. - Main Logic: The supply in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in December, and the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening. The inventory is high, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [6]. - Outlook: If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand will further weaken, and the inventory - accumulation pressure may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate [6][7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Information Analysis: The transaction price of N - type re - feeding materials is stable, the warehouse receipt quantity has increased slightly, the export and import volumes have decreased, the photovoltaic new - installed capacity from January to October increased year - on - year, and the industry association is promoting "anti - involution" work [7]. - Main Logic: The policy expectation is rising, the warehouse receipt quantity is low, providing support for near - month contracts. The supply is shrinking in the dry season, and the demand is weakening in November. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [7][9]. - Outlook: The "anti - involution" policy can boost the price, but the actual demand is weak, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Information Analysis: On December 1st, the closing price of the main contract increased, the total position increased, the spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased [9][10]. - Main Logic: The supply is expected to remain strong, the demand is better than in previous years, and the inventory is being depleted. The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, and the resumption of production of Jiaxiawo is a key factor [11]. - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, but the sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. 3.2 Market Monitoring The report only lists the sub - items of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the market monitoring section but does not provide specific content. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of CITIC Futures show different degrees of increase. The comprehensive index includes the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.76%, 1.09%, 0.74%, and 1.26% respectively. The new energy commodity index has a daily increase of 0.91%, a 5 - day increase of 1.94%, a 1 - month increase of 7.96%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.19% [53][54].