格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend. The external market is affected by factors such as US soybean oil export data and Indian procurement, while the domestic market has sufficient raw material supply and good inventory, resulting in a weak basis for soybean oil. Palm oil mainly follows the trend of Malaysian palm oil, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue a wide - range oscillation pattern. For trading, short - term long positions in palm oil should be closed and new short positions can be entered, while short - term long positions in soybean oil at the lower edge of the oscillation range can be held. For rapeseed oil, long positions in the far - month contracts should be closed [1][2]. - The meal market is affected by factors such as the increase in import rapeseed inventory and high rapeseed meal inventory. On December 1, rapeseed meal dropped significantly, dragging down soybean meal. The external market has certain impacts on the domestic market, and the 05 contracts of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are relatively strong. Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be held, but large increases are not expected due to sufficient supply [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil 3.1.1 Market Conditions - On December 1, affected by weather disturbances and Southeast Asian floods, Malaysian palm oil continued to strengthen, driving the overall vegetable oil sector to strengthen. The main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different price and position changes. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8288 yuan/ton, up 0.53% day - on - day, with an increase of 14,314 positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - Crude oil futures rose more than 1% on December 1 due to factors such as the Ukrainian drone attack, the US closing of Venezuelan airspace, and OPEC's decision to maintain the production level in the first quarter of 2026. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut import biofuel subsidies by one to two years. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month. - In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month, and its export volume decreased by 19.7% compared to October. - As of the 48th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.4454 million tons, an increase of 0.44% week - on - week and 13.56% year - on - year [1][2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - External market: US soybean oil export data boosted the price of US soybean oil, while the weak export data and increased Indian procurement from South America pressured Malaysian palm oil. - Domestic market: Sufficient supply of vegetable oil raw materials and good inventory led to a weak basis for soybean oil. However, due to continuous losses in import crushing profits of domestic oil mills, there is a willingness to support prices. The domestic rapeseed inventory has increased for the first time in 7 weeks, and the market sentiment has become cautious, resulting in a slight decline in the rapeseed oil basis [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Close all short - term long positions in palm oil and enter new short positions. Adopt a bullish view on soybean oil, and hold long positions at the lower edge of the oscillation range. Close long positions in the far - month contracts of rapeseed oil. - Arbitrage: Exit the narrowing spread of the 05 soybean - palm oil spread, and enter when it widens again [2]. 3.2 Meal 3.2.1 Market Conditions - On December 1, due to market data correction, the increase in import rapeseed inventory, and high rapeseed meal inventory, rapeseed meal dropped significantly, dragging down soybean meal. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different price and position changes. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 3039 yuan/ton, down 0.16% day - on - day, with a decrease of 88,030 positions [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 4%. - China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies since November 10. - As of November 13, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 71%. - The predicted output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season by StoneX is 178.9 million tons. - In the first three weeks of November, the soybean export volume of Brazil increased significantly compared to the same period last year. - As of the 48th weekend of 2025, the domestic import soybean inventory was 7955000 tons, and the domestic soybean meal inventory was 1206000 tons [2][3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - External market: Before the release of export data, US soybeans were under pressure. Although the inventory was high, the market purchase and sale were stable at the beginning of the month. With the decrease in the arrival of imported soybeans and the feed enterprises' replenishment of safety inventory from January to March, the near - month basis of traders was slightly raised. - Domestic market: With the arrival and crushing of Australian rapeseed and the increase in domestic imported granular meal inventory, combined with the off - season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal was under pressure. However, due to technical support at the bottom, it was difficult for it to fall significantly, and it mainly maintained a low - level oscillation [3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Hold the previously arranged long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. - Arbitrage: No trading strategy provided [3].