宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月2日）-20251202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures is mainly oscillatory consolidation. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the medium - to - long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists. The macro data shows certain resilience but is still weak, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. Future monetary policy is expected to be loose, which gives Treasury bond futures strong resilience. However, the difficulty of achieving the annual growth target is low, so there is not much need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the medium - to - long - term expectation of a loose policy still exists [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The November manufacturing PMI released by the statistics bureau was 49.2%, an improvement from last month's 49.0% but still below the boom - bust line. The macro data shows strong resilience but is still weak, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. Future monetary policy is expected to be loose, which gives Treasury bond futures strong resilience. The difficulty of achieving the annual growth target is low, so there is not much need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient [5]