宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年12月2日）-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Report Core Views - Regarding gold, the short - term view is "偏强", the medium - term view is "震荡", the intraday view is "震荡偏强", and the recommended view is "观望". The core logic is that the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the situation in Russia - Ukraine is tending to ease. However, the short - term gold price is relatively weak compared to silver, and the market risk preference is warming up, which is not conducive to the rise of the gold price [1][3]. - Regarding copper, the short - term view is "震荡", the medium - term view is "强势", the intraday view is "强势", and the recommended view is "长线看强". The core logic is that the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the US dollar index is weakening, and the copper market has a good fundamental situation and high capital attention. Also, there is a supply contraction expectation in the copper industry [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - Price Performance: Yesterday, the gold price rose first and then fell. The main contract price of Shanghai gold futures stood above the 960 mark, and the New York gold price stood above the $4250 mark [3]. - Driving Factors: Since late November, the upward momentum of the gold price has mainly come from the continuous increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the decline of the US dollar index. The current market expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December is close to 90%, and the US dollar index once fell to the 99 mark last night. The short - term gold price is relatively weak compared to silver, which reflects the warming up of market risk preference [3]. - Technical Analysis: Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure of Shanghai gold in mid - November [3]. Copper (CU) - Price Performance: Since last week, the copper price has been rising continuously. On Monday this week, Shanghai copper maintained a strong operation, and the night - session price once approached the 90,000 mark [4]. - Driving Factors: The rise of the copper price is mainly due to the increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index. The market expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has risen from 70% at the beginning of last week to nearly 90%. The copper market has a good fundamental situation and high capital attention. There has been a continuous fermentation of the overseas mine - end contraction expectation since late September, and the domestic industry supply contraction expectation has also increased. China has taken measures to manage copper smelting capacity and stopped about 2 million tons of illegal production capacity [4]. - Technical Analysis: Currently, both LME copper and Shanghai copper have stood above the high level at the end of October, which is also the historical high in the past 5 years. The short - term open interest of Shanghai copper has increased from 510,000 contracts to 580,000 contracts, with obvious increase in positions and upward movement, and the possibility of the copper price breaking through is relatively large [4].