银河期货每日早盘观察-20251202

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures still have the momentum to rebound, and the treasury bond futures should focus on the central bank's bond - buying scale. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply pressure of international soybeans increases, and the international sugar price has bottomed out, while the domestic sugar price is in a low - level shock. The oscillation in the oil sector continues. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices fluctuate within a range with cost support, coking coal and coke operate in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and iron ore should be treated with a high - level short - bias mindset. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, gold is in a strong - bias oscillation, and silver hits a new high. Platinum and palladium generally follow the upward trend of gold and silver, but there is a risk of callback. Summary According to Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The market rebounded with increased trading volume. The index is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the previous pressure levels. The trading strategies include short - term oscillating upward, conducting IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using the double - buying option strategy [20][21]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The performance of treasury bond futures was divided on Monday. The central bank's open - market operation led to a net withdrawal of short - term liquidity. The 11 - month official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and the previous long positions are recommended to be closed at high points [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The supply pressure of international soybeans increases, and the domestic supply may remain high. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate. The option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [28][29]. - Sugar: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil may be lower than expected, and the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom with a slightly upward trend. Domestically, the new sugar production increases, but the high production cost provides support. The trading strategies include short - term bottom - oscillating, conducting 1 - month long and 5 - month short arbitrage, and selling put options at low levels [35][36]. - Oilseeds and Oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in November, and the export was weak. The inventory is expected to gradually decrease. The price of soybean oil follows the overall trend, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline. The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term low - buying and high - selling band operations [37][38][39]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The US corn futures fell. The domestic northeast corn price is strong, and the north China price is weak. The 01 - contract corn oscillates at a high level. The trading strategies include short - term long on the 03 - contract corn on dips, short on the 01 - contract corn at high points, and waiting for dips on the 05 and 07 - contract corn [40][41]. - Hogs: The slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises has slowed down, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The recommended strategies are a short - bias mindset and selling a wide - straddle [43]. - Peanuts: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. The trading strategies include short - selling the 01 - contract peanut at high points, waiting and seeing on the 05 - contract peanut, conducting 1 - 5 contract reverse arbitrage, and selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option [45][47]. - Eggs: The demand is average, and the egg price is mainly stable. The in - production laying - hen inventory is still high. The recommended strategy is to build long positions on the far - month contract on dips [48][49][50]. - Apples: The apple inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. Considering the high price of the 01 - contract and the approaching delivery, it is recommended to wait and see [51]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The new cotton supply increases, and the demand enters the off - season. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term [55]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The steel price oscillates within a range with cost support. The trading strategies include maintaining an oscillating - upward trend, conducting the coil - coal ratio arbitrage, and waiting and seeing on options [59][60]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market is operating at the bottom. The trading strategies include lightly buying far - month contracts on dips, stopping profit on the 1/5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal, and waiting and seeing on options [61][62]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to be treated with a high - level short - bias mindset. The supply is loose in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. The trading strategy is to be short - biased at high levels [64]. - Ferroalloys: The short - term rebound is driven by cost, but the future demand pressure suppresses the rebound height. The option strategy is to sell an out - of - the - money straddle [67][68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold is in a strong - bias oscillation, and silver hits a new high. The trading strategies include holding long positions on gold below the 5 - day moving average, and for silver, aggressive investors can hold long positions against the 5 - day moving average, while conservative investors can adjust the stop - profit point. Buying out - of - the - money call options is also recommended [70][71]. - Platinum and Palladium: They generally follow the upward trend of gold and silver, but there is a risk of callback due to arbitrage. The trading strategies include holding long positions on platinum following gold and silver, being cautious about the callback risk, having a neutral view on palladium, conducting long platinum - short palladium ratio arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [73][74]. - Copper: The Japanese central bank's hawkish remarks trigger concerns about global liquidity tightening. The copper price may experience a short - term pull - back but has a long - term upward trend. The trading strategy is to take partial profit on long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton and then buy back on dips [77][78]. - Alumina: The short - term maintenance has limited impact. The price is expected to be in a weak - bias oscillation. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing on arbitrage and options [80][82]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The macro and micro factors resonate, and the aluminum price is in a strong - bias oscillation. The trading strategy is to be bullish on the medium - term price on dips [85][86]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It oscillates strongly following the aluminum price. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing on arbitrage and options [88][89]. - Zinc: The price fluctuates widely. The trading strategy is to take partial profit on profitable long positions and be vigilant about macro factors [91][93]. - Lead: The price oscillates within a range. No specific trading strategies are recommended in the text [95].