山金期货黑色板块日报-20251202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Steel Products: In the consumption off - season, the supply and demand of steel products are both weak, and the inventory pressure remains high, but the market's expectation for policy support has increased. The steel price may form an upward breakthrough, and attention should be paid to the trend of the 05 contract [2]. - Iron Ore: The decline in iron - making water production by steel mills suppresses the raw material price, and the increase in port inventory also suppresses the futures price. However, policy support exists. The 01 contract price has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the price is still in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Last week, the output of thread decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased. The overall output of the five major varieties increased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil is greater than that of thread. This week, the apparent demand has moderately declined. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than the normal seasonal scale, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have weakened, and the cost support for steel has decreased [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the daily K - line chart, the futures price has oscillated upwards at a low level, reaching a one - month high, and may form an upward breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the 05 contract [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase rising or falling, and wait patiently to go long after a full adjustment [2]. - Data Summary: - Price: The closing prices of thread and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day and week [3]. - Production: The output of thread decreased by 0.90% week - on - week, while that of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.95% week - on - week. The production of electric - arc furnace steel mills increased significantly [3]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 2.15% week - on - week, with thread inventory down 3.82% and hot - rolled coil inventory down 0.37% [3]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased by 0.69% week - on - week [3]. II. Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: Last week, the iron - making water production of sample steel mills decreased significantly. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron - making water production is expected to continue to decline seasonally, which will suppress the raw material price. The global iron ore shipment has rebounded from a high, and the port inventory is rising, which also suppresses the futures price. However, policy support exists [5]. - Technical Analysis: The 01 contract price has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, but overall, it has not escaped the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and wait patiently to enter the market and go long for the medium - term after the price correction [5]. - Data Summary: - Price: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices have changed to varying degrees compared with the previous day and week [5]. - Supply: Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 1.37% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments increased by 15.50% week - on - week [5]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased by 1.03% week - on - week [5]. III. Industry News - From November 24th to November 30th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3323.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44.7 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2765.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 128.4 million tons [7]. - On November 28, 2025, the China Iron and Steel Association held a symposium on the development of domestic iron ore resources, emphasizing that domestic mining enterprises should accelerate key iron ore projects [7]. - From November 24th to November 30th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2784.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 155.5 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2699.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.8 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1463.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.9 million tons [7].