格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20251202

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "Oscillation" for TL, T, TF, and TS [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of bond futures may be oscillatory, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - On Monday, the main contracts of bond futures opened roughly flat. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.08%, while the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.10%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher, rose in an oscillatory manner throughout the day, closed with a bare - headed small positive line, up 0.95% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume increased to 1.89 trillion yuan from 1.60 trillion yuan [1][2]. Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with 338.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. In the money market, the overnight interest rate of the inter - bank funds market remained low on Monday, with the weighted average of DR001 at 1.31% (previous trading day: 1.30%) and DR007 at 1.46% (previous trading day: 1.47%). In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day, with the 2 - year bond yield down 0.21 BP to 1.42%, the 5 - year down 0.72 BP to 1.61%, the 10 - year down 0.46 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year up 0.50 BP to 2.19%. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, lower than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48.7, indicating continuous contraction of the manufacturing industry [1]. Market Logic - In October, due to factors such as a higher base in the same period of the previous year and rapid growth of financial expenses, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The November manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the eighth consecutive month, with the large - enterprise sentiment declining significantly, production remaining stable, weak demand in new orders, and a slight recovery in new export orders. The November service industry business activity index was 49.5%, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time this year, with the new order index hitting a new low this year and the employment index falling slightly month - on - month. The latest macroeconomic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter [1].